THE ANNUAL AUTOPSY
Jim Matheson looks at how to fix the Oilers ... again
1. Coaching staff changes
Todd McLellan is likely coming back as head man, as he should with 425 career wins on his resume. But there will be some new assistant coaching faces. They should have gone all-in last spring to get Connor McDavid’s Erie Otters coach, Kris Knoblauch, who is an NHL head coach-in-waiting. But he went to Philadelphia as Dave Hakstol’s assistant.
They didn’t pursue Rocky Thompson, coach of the Memorial Cup champion Windsor Spitfires, hard enough. Maybe the Oilers staff could use some people who can be NHL coaches some day, and that’s not to denigrate Jay Woodcroft, who handled the power play, or Jim Johnson, who looked after the penalty kill and the defence with McLellan helping out the penalty kill later in the year. They’re two excellent and longtime assistants, but neither, as TSN’s Ryan Rishaug pointed out, is thought to be NHL head-coach timber.
There’s been talk the Oilers might want Woodcroft to coach their Bakersfield farm team if they feel Gerry Fleming, a good man with almost nothing to work with at forward for years, has run his course of employment there. Ian Herbers, the third Oilers assistant, who is up in the press box on game nights, could return to the University of Alberta with his three-year sabbatical ending. Or maybe he looks at coaching major junior. Goalie coach Dustin Schwartz’s contract is up, too. He works well with starter Cam Talbot.
2. Missing pieces
The never-ending search for an offensive defenceman (Hello, Justin Schultz) will continue, but they may have to give up a left-shot defenceman such as Oscar Klefbom or Darnell Nurse to get a righty, or a first-round pick in a package for a leftshooting Oliver Ekman-Larsson, if he’s available.
The most obvious trade target would be right-shot Tyson Barrie from Colorado. But as long as right-shot Cale Makar, their fourth overall 2016 pick, is staying in school for one more year, the Avalanche are not moving Barrie, who had 57 points.
The best short-term bet is Carolina’s Justin Faulk, whose stock is dropping after being on the 2014 U.S. Olympic squad at age 21. The Hurricanes want a live body back — a forward, not a defenceman or draft pick. Faulk makes a manageable US$4.8 million for the next two years but has been overtaken in Carolina by young defencemen Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce. He has a big shot from the point, something the Oilers sorely need, but had a 3.8 per cent shooting percentage.
The Oilers definitely have an imbalance on the back-end. They have Klefbom and Nurse as left shots and while Kris Russell and Andrej Sekera shoot left but have played the right side, both are much more comfortable on the left side. That’s four lefties and only two righties in Adam Larsson and Matt Benning. Something has to give.
3. No such thing as free
It’s hard to hire help when your hands are tied fiscally. The Oilers have 14 signed players for next season at $60 million — eight forwards making $37.2 million, four defencemen at $17.7 million and two goalies at $5.1 million.
They still have to sign Nurse, Benning, Ryan Strome, Drake Caggiula and Ty Rattie, and may want to qualify Anton Slepyshev to at least keep his rights. If they get Nurse on a bridge contract, that’s probably $3 million a year. Strome’s at $3 million, the other four at, say, $5 million total. That’s $71 million on 20 players. There’s not a lot left to go and sign free agents.
So forget James van Riemsdyk or James Neal, two solid free agent wingers, even though it’s a position they sorely need to fill.
4. A leaner Lucic
Milan Lucic must go through an entirely different workout regimen to try to drop 10 to 15 pounds. More cardio, fewer weights to get down from his current 238 pounds. There’s not an ounce of fat on him but he has to get leaner, either by different workouts or by changing his diet.
Maybe he should hire a skills coach like Adam Oates this summer, too, to try and find his missing offence. Although he says you can have too many cooks in the kitchen.
There’s been talk of a buyout but it’s not going to happen with five years left at $30 million. Of course, if there’s no offence again next season, all bets are off on that line of thought.
5. Moving forwards
They need two offensive forwards, either via trade or free agency, a hole created by the losses of Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle. Strome, who came for Eberle, is best suited as the No. 3 centre when they sign him again.
They need right-wingers more than left but in the shortterm, Thomas Vanek, who is an unrestricted free agent, makes absolute sense on a one-year deal in the $2.5 million range. He gets 20 goals every year, no matter where.
You can add New Jersey’s Michael Grabner, one of the fastest players in the league, as a free agent possibility, too, but he’s not your prototypical top-six winger. Ottawa’s Mike Hoffman is the best trade alternative with his speed and shot, although his lack of defence in a late-season game on a Connor McDavid rush where he just stood there didn’t win him any friends.
6. First-round pick currency Arizona’s captain, Ekman-Larsson, shoots left, but the Oilers need to investigate whether he wants to sign a long-term deal there.
Yes, the first-round draft pick would be in play for him, provided it’s still No. 9 and not in the top-three. He’s the perfect offensive puck-mover for McDavid. He may want out of Arizona at 26, with so much ownership and rink attendance issues and no playoffs certainty.
If they do want Ekman-Larsson, the Oilers will have to trade their first-round draft pick and they’d likely have to give the Coyotes a defenceman, too. Would they trade Nurse to get OEL? Or Klefbom?
7. A firm 'no’ on Nuge
The Oilers will rebuff everybody who calls about Ryan NugentHopkins, their best trading chip, because they see him as the best option to play with McDavid, leaving Leon Draisaitl as the No. 2 centre. The Blues need a centre after trading Paul Stastny. Arizona would love NugentHopkins because Derek Stepan is not a true No. 1. Carolina needs a centre, too, as do the Canucks with Henrik Sedin retiring. But McLellan loves Nugent-Hopkins.
8. Taking on Talbot
The Oilers may wait on exploring a new long-term deal with Talbot, who has one year left on his three-year, $12.5 million contract. They’ll likely want to see which Talbot is the real thing — last year’s guy, who played 73 games and was in the running for the Vezina, or this year’s inconsistent netminder. If Talbot plays well in 2018-19, expect a four-year deal in the $5-million-a-year range.
9. Sinking Sekera
The Oilers must closely monitor the Sekera situation. If, say, Klefbom and Larsson turn out to be a shutdown pair and they find an offensive defenceman to play with Nurse, that leaves Sekera and his $5.5 million salary as a third-pairing possibility with Kris Russell ($4 million), and Benning. Sekera’s contract is problematic, although if his repaired left knee comes around and he’s moving like he was in 2016-17, he’s valuable to the Oilers. Again, he’s the highest-paid defenceman. Should that be?
10. A case for Kassian
Zack Kassian probably makes too much at $1.95 million to be a fourth-line winger who also kills penalties. Most teams pay $750,000 to $900,000 to forwards on fourth lines. He’s possible trade bait with two years remaining.
They likely won’t re-sign penalty-killer Iiro Pakarinen, a restricted free-agent. And they may make Anton Slepyshev an offer, but could trade him because they’re not sold on him being a regular, while unrestricted free agent Mike Cammalleri may retire.