Pipeline meeting ends with a whimper

Well, that went about as badly as expected.

Sunday’s meeting in Ottawa between Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Alberta Premier Rachel Notley and British Columbia Premier John Horgan wrapped up with no end to the pipeline impasse.

On the positive side, I suppose, nobody stomped out, threats weren’t issued, transfer payments weren’t cut. But neither were solutions found.

Horgan is still fiercely opposed to Kinder Morgan’s $7.4-billion Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, which would pump bitumen from Alberta to the West Coast for shipment to Asia.

Horgan reportedly didn’t blink in the 90-minute eyeball-to-eyeball-to-eyeball meeting where he was out-eyeballed four to two.

Both Notley and Trudeau desperately want the pipeline to go ahead, for economic and political reasons, but they failed to wring any compromise from Horgan.

After the meeting, Trudeau announced the federal government is joining with Alberta to negotiate a “financial relationship” with Kinder Morgan to reassure investors the project will be built.

“I have instructed the minister of finance to initiate formal financial discussions with Kinder Morgan, the result of which will be to remove the uncertainty overhanging the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project,” said Trudeau.

Notley has already said her government will buy the project outright to ensure its completion, if necessary.

But the biggest issue here isn’t money. The pipeline expansion is a commercially viable project (otherwise there’d be no investors to reassure).

Ottawa and Alberta can throw a tonne of money at it, but that won’t put a dent in B.C.’s opposition.

That relentless opposition is what prompted an exasperated Kinder Morgan to announce last week it would pull the plug unless it had assurances by May 31 the project will go ahead. (A Kinder Morgan spokesperson said the company had no comment about Sunday’s meeting in Ottawa.)

Besides announcing financial discussions with Kinder Morgan, Trudeau did offer something else: “We are actively pursuing legislative options that will assert, plus reinforce, the government of Canada’s jurisdiction in this matter which we know we clearly have.”

The idea would be to bring in a bill presumably declaring the pipeline will be built because it’s in the national interest and federal laws supersede provincial laws when it comes to power over inter-provincial projects.

The idea would be to legislatively poke a stick in Horgan’s eye, hoping that will get him to blink.

The problem is Horgan already knows he has no jurisdiction over the pipeline. His environment minister, George Heyman, dropped that bombshell in the B.C. legislature last week.

Heyman said that shortly after winning the 2017 provincial election, Horgan was informed by legal experts that “stopping the project was beyond the jurisdiction of B.C.”

And yet Horgan has been dedicated to stopping the project. So why would a piece of federal legislation declaring Ottawa’s jurisdiction over the project make any difference to Horgan?

Even if Horgan realizes he has backed himself into a corner, he can’t simply admit he overstepped his authority and made a mistake. If he is going to back down, he needs a face-saving way to do that.

It seems the best way for that to happen would be via the courts declaring B.C. has no power over inter-provincial pipelines. And the courts are already involved.

Horgan has said he will continue with a court reference in B.C. on the issue of jurisdiction.

There’s also a decision expected this spring from the Federal Court of Appeal in B.C. on whether the federal government made the right decision in 2016 to approve the project.

Horgan seemed to suggest Sunday he’d be willing to live by that ruling: “It’s my view that should the courts render a decision that’s counter to our position, then that’s the way it should be.”

I’m reluctant to read too much into what Horgan says from day-to-day, especially since he’s known all along he didn’t have the power to stop the pipeline.

Notley is still expressing optimism, of course: “I’m quite confident that should these discussions (with Kinder Morgan) end successfully, that the pipeline will be built — and that is good, because the pipeline is in the national interest.”

Notley is not letting up the pressure on her old friend Horgan. On Monday afternoon, her government will introduce legislation giving itself the power to restrict the flow of Alberta oil to B.C. The idea would be to, among other things, make gasoline more expensive for British Columbians, who would presumably complain to their provincial government.

Notley is hoping, if all else fails, pressure from B.C. voters will eventually force Horgan to blink.