Oilers like Nurse’s upside, but at what cost?
If defenceman Darnell Nurse is considered part of the core here — not as untouchable as Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl or, to a lesser degree, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins — how much is the Edmonton Oilers kid worth on a new deal?
Do they go bridge over happy waters for two years and take the long road in 2020 with a seven- or eightyear contract buying a chunk of free-agency time when they have a much better feel for what kind of player Nurse really is?
A shutdown guy, a No. 2 D -man with an offensive threat?
Fiscally, there’s not a lot of wiggle room next season on the cap even if it rises to about $80 million, so a bridge makes considerably more sense.
They’ve got McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins and Milan Lucic, who has a no-move clause, signed for a combined $33 million and only about $16 million on their salary cap to sign seven guys for next year’s 23-man roster.
“There’s a whole spectrum of things that could happen. I think Darnell has only touched the tip of the iceberg in terms of his development and where he can go as a hockey player,” said Nurse’s agent Anton Thun. “We saw some of that this year, but he’s only 23 years old and still looks like a bit of a pup on the ice. I think Darnell’s got another four years to get better as a hockey player. We’ll know the real Darnell Nurse when he’s 27, but this year he was pretty darned good.”
If it’s a two-year bridge for Nurse, then he’s willing to bet on himself for a bigger, longer payday later. It could be in the $6.5-million range for the two seasons, although Winnipeg ’s Jake Trouba is just finishing a two-year bridge at $6 million.
If they feel they can fit Nurse in their cap and want to lock him up for cost certainty, here’s two comparables Thun might use: Buffalo’s Rasmus Ristolainen at a $5.4-million cap hit or Carolina’s Jaccob Slavin at a $5.3-million cap hit.
Ristolainen and Slavin were their teams’ best D-men when they got their six- and seven-year deals, though.
Two other names to consider: Mike Matheson signed an eightyear deal for $4.875 million when he was 23 and had played 84 games in Florida. He’s the Panthers’ thirdbest defenceman after Aaron Ekblad and Keith Yandle. Or Colton Parayko, the Blues second-best blue-liner after Alex Pietrangelo, who signed a five-year, $27.5-million deal at 24 after 160 games.
Parayko is clearly better than Nurse.
Matheson is in the same territory as Nurse, but more offensive minded.
At the present time, Adam Larsson and Oscar Klefbom are better than Nurse.
They each make a very friendly $4.1 million a season. Do the Oilers want to go higher than that for somebody younger? What do the Oilers see in Nurse, who has played 197 games? Is Nurse a second-pairing defenceman long term with a nasty bedside manner who can get the puck up ice with his skating, but doesn’t make enough good plays yet in the other team’s end, but with some possibility to play the point on a second power play because he can hammer the puck? Or is he a solid No. 2 with a strong puck-mover as a partner?
Nurse played at least 20 minutes in 33 of the last 35 games. He got lots of love because Klefbom had a bad shoulder and Andrej Sekera didn’t return until December because of knee surgery and then was a shadow of his usual self.
“Darnell relishes the challenge, but at the end of the day you need a deep enough roster where ice time can be spread out, but probably the most frustrating thing for Darnell other than the losing, which he hates, was the lack of opportunity in offensive situations,” said Thun.
Nurse had 26 points with six goals. He didn’t score after his OT winner in Vegas Jan. 13 and had just seven points from that point on.
“Darnell and Larsson or Kris Russell were seen as defensive guys,” said Thun.
It’s far easier to read forwards as kids than defencemen, of course. Nurse may have more offensive chops than he’s shown.
“You can be the No. 1 shutdown defenceman and still be good offensively,” said Thun. “A guy like (Victor) Hedman didn’t get to where he is until his fourth, fifth, sixth year. Look at his first three years in the NHL (20, 26, 23 points), he didn’t explode on the scene, his game tweaked in Year 4 (20 points in 44 games).”