PM should ditch supply management for dairy, eggs, chicken

Move would be blow to Conservatives, but Trudeau is unlikely to take the risk

It’s time for Justin Trudeau to decide whether he wants to waste a perfectly good crisis.

Donald Trump’s surprise trade deal with Mexico certainly has the feel of a crisis. And if being frozen out of the trilateral negotiation wasn’t bad enough, the U.S. president is threatening to “tariff ” the U.S.-Canada auto trade, a move that would place a giant stick in the spokes of the Canadian economy.

But instead of hammering the office Trump pinata, as some in the Trudeau PMO are wont to do, Trudeau should look to exploit the other crisis in Canadian politics — the departure of Maxime Bernier from the Conservative party — to reframe next year’s federal election.

That’s right, it’s time for Trudeau to dismantle Canada’s archaic system of supply management for the dairy, poultry and egg industries — for the good of Canada’s trading relationships and the detriment of Canada’s Conservative party.

Here are two things for the Liberals to consider: 1) The Bernier departure might not hurt the Conservatives as much as expected; and, 2) The rift doesn’t eliminate the biggest weapon Conservatives have against Trudeau heading into the next election: the impact of his carbon tax on Canadian pocketbooks.

Let’s start with Bernier.

While there is no question “Mad Max” excites elements of the Conservative base, it’s far from a given they will follow him out the door when their chance to defeat Trudeau — a far greater bugbear to them than Andrew Scheer — is only a year away.

Bernier has only taken an easy first step; setting up the machinery his new party will need to be competitive will be much harder. Just ask Elizabeth May. It’s true Bernier doesn’t have to win to hurt his former colleagues, yet most Conservative supporters remember the pain of a split right — and the resulting Liberal majorities — all too well. Then there’s the carbon tax. The recent election of Doug Ford in Ontario should be read as the blueprint for the next federal Conservative campaign. Scheer sees a similar path to victory through the demonization of the carbon tax, especially among suburban voters, including those in the diverse communities with whose integration Bernier is so latterly obsessed.

The best way for Trudeau to neutralize the Tory carbon tax attack would be to have his own pocketbook tax cut.

Exit supply management. Forcing Canadians to pay inflated prices for their milk, eggs and chicken so a clique of farmers in Ontario and Quebec are able to enjoy a comfortable living is regressive, and doubly so now that Trump is threatening to scuttle Canada’s free trade deal with the U.S. for the privilege of these sky-high tariffs.

It would take a monumental sales effort from Trudeau, but abolishing supply management represents a tax cut to the 99.9 per cent of Canadians who buy these staples, and a highly visible one at that. It is simply the right thing to do.

Ending supply management would also deprive Bernier and his fledgling party of oxygen, forcing them further into the culture wars to keep the movement growing. This should please Trudeau and his strategists immensely, as these wars have infinitely more potential to damage the Tory brand than the Liberal. The sight of Scheer and Bernier scrapping it out on diversity and immigration might even tempt some Blue Tories into the Liberal corner.

Of course, abolishing supply management won’t happen. While others, including former Liberal MP Martha Hall Findlay, have convincingly advocated for its abolition, the day has never come. And Trudeau has so far shown no proclivity for risk, always preferring the safe message to a friendly audience.

And so, Trudeau will probably play it safe. And in so doing, he will miss a golden opportunity to turn two crises to his advantage and, more importantly for Liberals, put the sword to their enemy.