Ruling on pipeline will haunt Notley: professor

‘Simply put, she’s in a lot of trouble’

The Federal Court of Appeal CALGARY decision quashing approval of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion will have a massive impact on the Alberta political scene with a provincial election less than a year away, says a political analyst.

Mount Royal University political scientist Duane Bratt said Premier Rachel Notley has staked the fortunes of her NDP government on showing real progress on construction of the pipeline to the British Columbia coast.

With the court decision at the very least significantly delaying construction, the consequences will be significant for the NDP, which already faced a mammoth challenge from the United Conservative Party.

“Notley ’s in a lot of trouble,” said Bratt in an interview Thursday.

“Simply put, she’s in a lot of trouble. It’s not her fault, but it doesn’t matter.”

The Federal Court ruling hinged on the failure of the government of Canada to fully live up to its duty to consult with affected First Nations before the project was approved by the federal cabinet.

It also found the National Energy Board made a critical error by not assessing the impact of increased tanker traffic on the Pacific coast and on endangered orcas.

Bratt noted neither of those issues has anything to do with the Alberta government.

But Notley will take heat because she has linked the broadbased carbon levy brought in by her government to gaining social licence for the pipeline to go ahead, he said.

At a Calgary news conference, UCP Leader Jason Kenney called for Notley to immediately scrap the carbon tax.

“Alberta’s NDP has been wrong from Day 1 in promising pipeline construction as a result of punishing Albertans with a carbon tax,” he said.

A former aide to Kenney, Blaise Boehmer, tweeted that the “NDP are now officially toast in 2019,” though the UCP leader dismissed the idea the pipeline setback would clinch the next election for his party.

Kenney also criticized Notley for “triumphalism” after a series of earlier court victories in relation to the pipeline, a theme also raised by the Alberta Party.

“Rachel Notley stood in front of the legislature, with her staff lined up behind her clapping, and announced that buying the pipeline was the solution to all our problems,” said Alberta Party MLA Rick Fraser in a news release.

“Today, we saw how hollow all of that celebrating is.”

Bratt said Notley will also feel the impact of allying the province so closely with the federal Liberal government, which approved the project but fell short on the duty to consult.

The Trudeau government purchased the Trans Mountain line from Kinder Morgan Canada for $4.5 billion in order to overcome political uncertainty facing the project.

Kinder Morgan shareholders overwhelmingly approved that decision at a meeting Thursday in Calgary.

The pipeline expansion is seen by proponents as critical as Alberta tries to open new markets in order to get a better price for its oilsands crude.

Bratt said the court decision is not as damaging to the pipeline itself as it first appeared, with the court saying the federal government and the NEB can redo the faulty parts of the process in relatively quick order.

But time is not a luxury the premier has, he said, given that the next provincial election is scheduled by law to take place between next March 1 and May 31.