Sens could still wind up winners in trade long-term if chips fall right
Mix of NHL regulars, high draft picks may eventually pan out into a good haul
The ridiculing began almost immediately.
Only moments after Erik Karlsson was moved to the San Jose Sharks, Senators GM Pierre Dorion was chided for not getting more in return.
What about 21-year-old rising star Timo Meier? Or flashy 24-year-old Tomas Hertl? Or Ryan Merkley, a 5-11, point-a-game defenceman with the Guelph Storm who the Sharks selected with the 21st pick in 2018?
Why couldn’t Dorion have had any of them included in exchange for the most talented player in Senators history?
Because we weren’t privy to trade negotiations, we don’t know if Dorion tried to pad the package with any of the above. Quite likely, he did and was rebuffed. It’s possible, I suppose, that he chose quantity over quality, thinking there was a better chance the blow of trading Karlsson would have been softened by getting six pieces in return instead of three or four.
But that’s doubtful, given how important a good trade was not to just the Ottawa franchise, but also to Dorion’s career.
He’s been entertaining offers from who knows how many teams for seven months. This one activated his trigger finger for a reason, and it wasn’t just because they wanted the Karlsson situation resolved before camp.
The immediate reaction to Ottawa retrieving two NHLers, two “high-end” prospects and two high draft picks in return for Karlsson and minor-leaguer Francis Perron? The Senators didn’t get enough.
But that’s partly because of Karlsson’s greatness, that nothing he fetched would have made it an Ottawa win, and that’s partly because of the unknowns coming this way.
You’ve likely watched Chris Tierney, a 24-year old centre who had 40 points with the Sharks last season, but little or nothing from the other three warm bodies that are now Senators.
The jewel in the bundle is expected to be Josh Norris, the Sharks’ first-round pick (19th overall) in 2017.
Word on the 6-1, 192-pound centre is that he’s a strong player in all three zones, a very good skater and in possession of an offensive touch.
Adding to the allure is the fact the Oxford, Mich., native played on the U.S. National Under-18 team with Brady Tkachuk and, according to Dorion, the two are “best friends.”
That could work in the Senators’ favour when they are trying to resign Tkachuk years from now, when they can’t afford him.
Dorion said Ottawa scouts believe Norris’ game has improved since he was drafted. The question is, how long does the 19-year-old plan to remain at the University of Michigan, where he had eight goals and 23 points in 37 games last season as a freshman?
Maybe Tkachuk can help convince him to come out sooner rather than later.
The Senators are calling Rudolfs Balcers a “blue-chip” prospect despite the fact he was a fifth-round selection of the Sharks in 2015.
That sounds like over-hype, but Balcers does have Karlsson-like qualities.
A 5-11, 173-pound forward with good hands, he scored 40 goals and 37 assists in 66 games with the Kamloops Blazers two seasons ago. Last year, his first as a pro, he led the AHL’s San Jose Barracudas in scoring with 48 points, including 23 goals.
“Rudolfs has excellent puck skills and possesses an outstanding shot, with a great release,” said Dorion. “He is a dynamic player that wants to have the puck and has exceptional quickness.”
A native of Liepaja, Latvia, Balcers should have a shot at cracking the Ottawa lineup this season.
Tierney has a cap hit of US$2,937,500 for the next two seasons and could very well be the Senators’ new second-line centre, especially if Jean- Gabriel Pageau’s training-room injury on Thursday keeps him out long term. A former second-round pick, he was a prolific scorer with the London Knights, playing with Mitch Marner, Max Domi and Bo Horvat.
While answering an immediate need, he is a hard worker who is said to have leadership qualities. A good get.
Dylan DeMelo, a 25-year-old former sixth-rounder, is a right-handshooting defensive defenceman with 133 games of NHL experience. He should step right into the Senators’ top six.
The Senators also receive the Sharks’ first-round pick in 2019 or 2020 that is not lottery-protected. If San Jose misses the playoffs this season, it will be a 2019 choice, and if not, 2020. Ottawa receives a second-round pick in 2019, which will be the higher of the two second-round picks San Jose already owns. The two the Sharks own — theirs and one they picked up from the Florida Panthers, ironically enough, in the trade for Mike Hoffman.
The Senators also receive two conditional picks.
If the Sharks can sign Karlsson to an extension, Ottawa receives San Jose’s second pick in 2021. It becomes a first-rounder if the Sharks reach the Stanley Cup final next spring.
Also, the Senators get another first-round pick from San Jose, from no later than 2022, if Karlsson winds up on an Eastern Conference roster during this season.
So when the dust settles, it’s conceivable the Senators could wind up with three first-round picks, along with the second, and four already identified players, two of whom are regulars in the NHL and the other two projected to be top-end talents in the league.
Not a bad haul at all, and five years down the road Dorion could be regarded as a mastermind for pulling this one off.
Yet, right now it still doesn’t seem like enough for Erik Karlsson — a player the Senators could no longer afford to keep.