WE CAN’T BECOME A CITY OF LUDDITES
Self-driving shuttle off to a shaky start, but Edmonton needs to hang on for the ride
Have you gone car shopping for the last time?
Coun. Andrew Knack thinks he has. He owns a 2011 Kia Soul. Barring a collision, he’s betting a fleet of self-driving cars will make private cars unnecessary before he needs a new one.
Edmonton is testing an autonomous public shuttle this month, hoping to offer free rides outside the Old Strathcona Library all weekend.
Knack and I sat in the test shuttle this week. It didn’t move. That didn’t help his argument. It turns out the demonstration model is a little skittish — it sometimes stops for blowing leaves. It’s been down for two days while technicians wait for a new part.
I’m not as bullish on the new technology as Knack, city council’s technophile. I might buy one more car. But it’s critical Edmonton keep piloting this technology. Why? Not because Edmonton is going to make amazing contributions, but simply because we can’t afford to be luddites. There’s too much at stake. Think how far this technology has already come.
Think of the billions of dollars invested in research as most major vehicle manufactures, plus Apple, Google and Uber, climb on board.
All but Tesla are now investing in fleet-based models, aiming to sell transportation as a service to keep riders paying every day.
That is good news for urban planners.
Experts have long been worried self-driving vehicles will simply increase the distance commuters are willing to drive each day. They could drink coffee and answer email while commuting from Pigeon Lake in a mobile office.
Personal ownership leads to more use. Buy a car and the loan payments, insurance and maintenance are fixed costs; the actual cost of driving is low so we think little of driving across the city to a mall. People enjoying time in a self-driving car might use it exponentially more, increasing congestion and demands for new freeways.
Now look at a fleet-based model.
Whether public or corporatelyowned, it will likely charge people money based on time and distance. That means, for the first time since cars replaced the horse and buggy, people may have an incentive to stay closer to home.
If it works as now predicted, we would see more high-density neighbourhoods with the shops, foot traffic and vibrancy planners dream of. That means more reason to exercise, more local business, more running into neighbours and building social connections.
That neighbourhood hubs would be connected with LRT and possibly, a whole line of selfdriving shuttles all linked up and racing in their own lane down the freeway to the next neighbourhood hub. Seniors, youth and people with mobility challenges could finally have good options.
If we don’t get involved in testing this, we have no hope of getting ahead of it.
As Knack and I sat in the nondriving autonomous shuttle, a stream of residents stopped to check it out. Even more important, bureaucrats from Alberta Transportation came to quiz executives with Pacific Western Transportation, the company sponsoring the test.
These people need hands-on experience.
They need to regulate the quality of the sensors and backup safety systems. They also need to take a deep breath and give a go-ahead if it’s ready.
City council’s official policy on autonomous technology is to watch closely, looking for ways to nudge forward a shared-vehicle system.
City officials are analyzing what that means as part of the new 10-year city plan, and trying to develop Edmonton-specific computer models to predict how likely residents are to adopt new options.
But they have no further tests planned yet. They’ve heard from the public there’s no need to be “bleeding edge on this,” said the city’s Howaida Hassan, who is leading this part of the city plan.
I disagree. We need more tests. Knack is pushing for winter testing at the Edmonton Research Park. He wants the transit union formally involved, too.
Both are great ideas. Again, not because Edmonton is going to lead, but because it allows us to see what’s coming.
Edmonton residents love their cars. We love how it’s always ready for us, warm and inviting if it’s in a heated garage. It gives us a personal space bubble to belt out awkward pop songs and leave empty coffee cups.
So this might not come soon. But it’s coming.
Think of how quickly cellphones took over; how Netflix replaced DVDs, how dramatically the internet changed what we read and how we interact.
Knack is right about something: “It feels like it’s going to be gradual, then something happens and it snowballs.”