Forecast calls for a milder winter in Alberta

‘Persistent warm pattern’ should prevail, Weather Network meteorologist says

The weather outside won’t be as frightful this winter, it seems.

On Monday, the Weather Network revealed its winter forecast for the country and is calling for winter in Edmonton, and much of Alberta, to be slightly milder than normal over December, January and February.

“As you get into early and mid-December you’re actually going to be into a much cooler pattern but you should start to break out of that and be in a more persistent warm pattern for much of winter,” said meteorologist Brad Rousseau.

“Periods of Arctic air are going to happen — that’s unavoidable. It is winter.”

Precipitation amounts are also expected to be normal or slightly below normal this winter.

“The storm track that we see for the area is a lot of storms riding up over the mountains through the Yukon and the Territories and then coming down,” said Rousseau. “These kinds of storms don’t tend to bring a lot of moisture for the region.”

ACROSS THE COUNTRY

In the west, B.C., Alberta, Yukon and N.W.T. are going to have a “pretty pleasant winter” with drier than normal conditions, with the exception of Yukon which is expected be a little wetter and snowier than the rest.

In the central, eastern Prairies of Saskatchewan, Manitoba and parts of western Ontario, things are expected to be in a constant state of flux, with battles between harsh Arctic air and milder Pacific air.

It’s in Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada where Old Man Winter is expected to hit the hardest.

“In Ontario and Quebec, the core of the coldest air is expected to be there,” said Rousseau. “Atlantic Canada is getting the combination of a cold and snowy winter — they ’re kind of taking the brunt of winter for the country.”

METHODOLOGY

When doing seasonal forecasts, getting an exact picture of how things will play out is admittedly difficult, says Rousseau, which is why meteorologists stick to using less specific terminology like “above” or “below” normal.

One way to help piece together the puzzle is to pay attention to what the oceans are doing, says Rousseau.

“Ocean waters in the north Pacific and the Gulf of Alaska are running really warm, and as well waters off the Atlantic coast are running warm so that’s going to have an impact on the overall patterns across the country,” said Rousseau.

Along with analyzing the oceans and long-range seasonal models, one aspect meteorologists look at are called ‘analogue years’. These are previous years where similar patterns in the fall helped to determine trends through the winter months.

“We kind of put all that together to get our best guess as to how the overall winter is going to be,” said Rousseau. “It’s not the easiest thing.”