CANADA SANCTIONS SAUDI OFFICIALS
WHAT TO WATCH AT G20 SUMMIT
On Wednesday evening Prime Minister Justin Trudeau boarded a plane to Buenos Aires, Argentina, where world leaders are gathering for what’s expected to be an especially tense summit. By Thursday morning his foreign minister was announcing sanctions on 17 officials from one G20 member, Saudi Arabia, for their role in the murder of a journalist in Turkey, another G20 nation.
What Chrystia Freeland called a “vile” killing is only one issue that threatens to lead tensions among the world’s biggest economies to boil over.
Put U.S. President Donald Trump in a room with Trudeau, Germany’s Angela Merkel and France’s Emmanuel Macron and things are already going to be interesting, as we found out at this year’s G7 summit near Quebec City. But this time Saudi Arabia, China and Russia are also invited to dinner.
The Group of 20 is responsible for about 85 per cent of the world’s gross domestic product, so discussions are ostensibly focused on the global economy but always affected by political headwinds. The group also includes the European Union, the United Kingdom, India, Brazil, Japan, Italy, Australia, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, South Korea and Turkey.
Here are four things Canadians should watch as Trudeau sits at that table Friday and Saturday.
THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM
Expect even more fallout from the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi at a consulate in Istanbul, apparently orchestrated by Saudi leadership, including Prince Mohammed bin Salman. On Thursday morning, in Buenos Aires, Freeland announced that Canada would use its Magnitsky law — named in honour of Sergei Magnitsky, an accountant who died while in Russian custody after investigating corruption — to impose sanctions on 17 individuals tied to the murder, joining France and the U.S. The sanctions freeze any assets the targets might have in Canada and says they cannot enter the country.
“This case is not closed,” Freeland told reporters. “Those responsible for the murder of Mr. Khashoggi must be held to account and face justice.”
MBS, as he’s nicknamed, can expect a frosty reception from his Turkish counterpart as a matter of course. But all eyes will be on his interactions with Trump, who rejected the findings of his own security officials in defending the crown prince.
Aside from the political questions that understandably arise from the brutal killing of a political dissident, many billions of dollars in arms deals hang in the balance. Canada is reviewing its export permits. In a bipartisan vote, a majority of Democrat and Republican lawmakers in the U.S. Senate endorsed a freeze on the flow of weapons to Saudi Arabia used to support its deadly bombing campaign in Yemen — a measure that Trump has threatened to veto.
THE OTHER ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM
Russian President Vladimir Putin arrives in Argentina as a naval confrontation between Russia and Ukraine plays out in the waters off Crimea. The Western world sees Russia’s annexation of that territory as a blatant violation of international law.
Russia fired on and seized several Ukrainian vessels off the coast of Crimea but is now claiming that Ukraine staged the provocation. Meanwhile, Ukraine has declared martial law along the border and asked for NATO’s help. It is the latest example of Russia testing its limits in the region, and paired with ongoing investigations of Russian interference in Western elections, it may not make Putin very popular among his colleagues.
NORTH AMERICAN TRADE
The new U.S.-MexicoCanada Agreement could be signed this weekend, although final details in the NAFTA replacement are still being ironed out. On Wednesday, Trudeau said Canada was “still in discussions” about the rollout.
It is an open question whether the three countries can resolve a trade dispute that hung over negotiations and now the new deal. U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum from Canada and Mexico still remain.
U.S.-CHINA TRADE WAR
The Americans under Trump have been heavy handed with imposing tariffs in general, and China is the biggest target. This year the U.S. applied tariffs to US$250 billion worth of products imported from China. China responded to the effect of $110 billion. (That number isn’t higher because the U.S. exports less to China.) Trump is threatening to further increase tariff rates on Jan. 1.
The popular wisdom is the U.S. is dissatisfied with China’s economic system in general, including its use of non-tariff barriers to restrict trade, the proliferation of state-owned enterprises and concerns over intellectual property. Those market-distorting tactics are not about to go away overnight. But the escalating trade war, in the meantime, is slowing economic growth worldwide, according to the International Monetary Fund.
Time will tell if Chinese President Xi Jinping can cajole Trump into a de-escalation.