Kawhi’s decision key to Raptors’ future plans
Development of Siakam, Anunoby is key if two-time finals MVP opts to leave town
The most glorious season in Toronto Raptors history is officially over, though the hangovers from Monday’s massive celebration are likely still lingering.
What can the Raptors possibly do for an encore, having captured the hearts of not only the city, but much of the country? It’s too soon to know that for sure, but here are some big questions we’re thinking about as the NBA calendar flips to the 2019-20 season, starting with Thursday’s draft in Brooklyn.
1. What will Leonard do?
This isn’t just the biggest question facing the Raptors, it might be the decision that affects the entire league the most, since Leonard re-established himself as the game’s best two-way player in winning his second NBA Finals MVP award and another title.
The only thing anyone knows with certainty is that Leonard will decline his $21.3-million player option by June 29, which happens to be his 28th birthday.
The thinking from everywhere all year has been that while Leonard might take other meetings, his decision will probably come down to staying with the Raptors, who can offer him the most money (either on a long- or short-term deal) and the longest term, or heading home to play for the Los Angeles Clippers. The pending Lakers move to acquire Anthony Davis has likely taken them out of the mix for both financial and logical reasons. The Raptors did all that they could to convince Leonard to forge a longer partnership with the franchise. They ramped him back into form spectacularly, building a trust with him and his advisers, and of course, came together to help him win another championship.
If he commits, it will be business as usual, and Toronto will be among the favourites to win it all next June.
2. What’s the plan if Leonard leaves?
There will always be a championship and all of the historic moments to savour. Toronto would obviously take a major step back losing such an elite performer, but would probably still be considered a strong candidate to nab a home-court slot in the first round of the 2019-20 playoffs.
Pascal Siakam would become the primary scoring option, but he would need a lot of help by committee.
Kyle Lowry would have to morph back into a bigger option on offence (assuming he would want to stay to play out the final year of his contract in the event Leonard goes elsewhere) and Marc Gasol would also carry a bigger load, similar to what he was asked to do for years in Memphis, if not quite that much anymore. (Gasol could opt out, but is owed $25.5 million, so it feels unlikely he would do so given his age and how much he enjoyed his four months with the team).
Head coach Nick Nurse is a big believer in OG Anunoby, as is team management. Anunoby had a tough year both on and off the court and ended up missing the entire playoffs, but his upside remains as a top-notch defender with a solid outside shot and room to grow on offence. He’d likely return to the starting small forward role he filled as a rookie.
It wouldn’t be ideal, and who knows what the plan would be once Lowry, Gasol and Fred VanVleet become unrestricted free agents a year from now, but the Raptors would still be a decent squad capable of making some noise.
3. What will they do at the draft? Probably not much. Toronto traded its first-round selection (29th overall) to San Antonio, along with DeMar DeRozan and Jakob Poeltl, for Leonard and Danny Green last summer. At the moment, the Raptors own the 59th pick, the second-last selection in the draft.
Though Manu Ginobili was once nabbed by the Spurs at No. 57, and future all-star Isaiah Thomas went 60th, there’s little chance the Raptors find a future contributor there.
The team could still attempt to trade into the first round or acquire a more valuable second-rounder. The team held at least six pre-draft workouts, and also needs to find players for Raptors 905, its G League affiliate in Mississauga, Ont.
Toronto has both of its picks for the 2020 draft, but has already dealt away three second-rounders.
At some point, there needs to be a point guard succession plan (with Lowry and VanVleet free to leave in July 2020), and more wing depth would be nice (though not so much if Leonard and Green both re-sign).
Toronto has done as good a job as any other team in the NBA in recent years in developing its prospects. With no blue-chippers set to arrive anytime soon, that strong work is going to have to continue.
4. What will Green do?
The veteran starter had an outstanding regular season, earning a host of all-defensive team votes while also ranking among the NBA’s most accurate three-point shooters, but he wasn’t as effective in the playoffs. Still, he helped the squad win it all. He’s a leader and a favourite in the locker-room, and a smart, experienced veteran with in-demand skills. There will be a lot of interested parties and Green, who turns 32 Saturday and didn’t make a lot of money (relatively speaking) before signing a threeyear, $30-million deal with San Antonio, is likely looking at the most lucrative contract of his career.
Toronto can go over the salary cap to bring him back, and he has said it would be a strong option to return, but his hometown New York Knicks or Brooklyn Nets could also come sniffing around.
If Leonard returns, it’s hard to see Green not wanting to come back, too.
5. What can the Raptors do to get even better if Leonard re-signs?
First, ownership will have to be willing to pay a sizable luxury tax bill. But given how much merchandise the franchise has been selling for weeks now, and the money that came from so many playoff gates, that’s likely a problem Larry Tanenbaum and Co. would love to have.
The team would have the taxpayer’s mid-level exception (a deal starting at roughly $5.5 million a season) to offer and a ring-chaser might take a discount at that amount or even a minimum contract.
There’s also a $2.9-million trade exception (expiring on July 19) and three others of varying value that can’t be stacked, but could be used individually in trades. Youngsters Chris Boucher (the G League MVP, who was raised in Montreal) and Malcolm Miller can also be retained by picking up their inexpensive, non-guaranteed deals.
6. What else do you need to know?
There have been conflicting reports of Washington’s interest in team president Masai Ujiri. Ownership wouldn’t let him go easily and he likely gets a raise, regardless.
Nurse likely hopes to retain his entire coaching staff, but lead assistant Adrian Griffin has long been considered a head coach in waiting (Nurse has even said as much) and could be plucked.
It will also be fascinating to watch, from a leaguewide perspective, what the top free agents like Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Klay Thompson, Jimmy Butler, Kemba Walker, Khris Middleton, Nikola Vucevic, Tobias Harris, J.J. Redick, D’Angelo Russell, DeMarcus Cousins, Malcolm Brogdon, Brook Lopez and Al Horford decide to do. Some of their decisions will affect the Raptors.