We may soon have to thank Trump

There’s litt le Canada can do on its own to win release for Spavor and Kovrig.

Here’s the horrible reality sneaking up on unsuspecting Canadians in the wake of Justin Trudeau’s visit to Washington: should a plausible series of events unfold, Canadians could find themselves forced to make pleasant remarks about Donald Trump.

The prime minister’s trip was officially about trade issues and other matters related to Canada/U.S. relations. Winning Congressional approval for the refreshed NA FTA agreement is certainly important, though, to tell the truth, the world wouldn’t end if Democrats couldn’t bring themselves to pass the accord and we all continued with the existing one.

At least as important to Ottawa is the need to find a way out of the minefield of Canada’s relations with China. First and foremost in that search is to gain freedom for Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig, two Canadians jailed by China on invented charges, and held as ransom for Meng Wanzhou, the Huawei executive being held in her Vancouver mansion on an extradition request by the U.S.

There’s little Canada can do on its own to win release for Spavor and Kovrig. The Liberal government has made great efforts, but justice has nothing to do with the case, which is all about China’s swollen sense of its place in the world, and its determination to use bullying tactics to get its way. The best chance of influencing Beijing’s Communist powers is to deploy pressure in equal or greater amounts, to the point it becomes in their interest to avoid embarrassment and end the confrontation.

Canada isn’t important or powerful enough to do this, but the U.S. is. It may be the only country still able to worry China to the point it stops acting so uncivilized.

After his session with Trudeau, Trump was more than happy to offer his help. He’s scheduled to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping at a Group of 20 gathering in Japan. Canada’s prime minister can’t even get Chinese leaders to return phone calls, much less rate a one-on-one with Xi. But Trump says he’s been accorded an “extended” get-together with Xi, as they have their own trade frictions to discuss, and promises he’ll absolutely raise the detention of Spavor and Kovrig during their talks.

“I’ll represent him well, I will tell you,” Trump said. “We’ll see what happens, but anything I can do to help Canada I will be doing ... I would, at Justin’s request, I will actually bring it up.”

The world knows too well by now that when Donald Trump says something, the moment the words are out of his mouth, they cease to exist as matters of reliability. They certainly do not mean the president intends to follow whatever direction the words indicated. Or even that he remembers having said them.

In this case, however, it’s possible that Trump could indeed raise Canada’s case with Xi. There are several reasons for this. It would make him look good, and there’s nothing Trump treasures more than strutting around with something to boast about. It would give him material to hold over his opponents’ heads, and to support his frequent claims to be the greatest thing to happen to the world since maybe forever. It would be a timely bit of business as he gets his re-election drive into gear, and burnish his sense of himself as a global figure of immense personal influence, the kind of guy who can be pals with Vladimir Putin, draw North Korea’s dictator from his hermit redoubt, and solve problems for poor little Canada, whose prime minister, “Justin,” has gone back to being “a friend of mine.”

To a degree, it also makes sense for China. Even the great minds in Beijing must grasp by now that their swaggering efforts to force Ottawa to kneel in penitence have only made it impossible for Trudeau to comply. No respectable Canadian, other than maybe Jean Chrétien and whatever business interests he considers to be more important than Canada’s integrity and the safety of Canadians abroad, would countenance a government that cowered to ransom demands in such a way.

Trump could have the extradition request dropped, which would give China cover to release the Canadians. Lots of learned folks have insisted it would be a bad thing for Trump to treat the law as no more than a bargaining tool in his trade war with China. That may be so, but what justice system, in Canada, the U.S. or elsewhere, doesn’t include plea bargaining as part of normal procedures?

China, of course, would expect something big from the U.S. in return. And Trump would want to be amply compensated in some way, since that is what his life is all about. That’s not impossible: both countries desire a way out of the trade battle that is doing neither of them any good. Should they reach some sort of accord, Canada’s complaint could be tossed into the bargain as a sort of sweetener. You think the U.S. really wants to find itself with Meng on its hands, replacing Canada in a situation with no easy resolution and lots of discomforts?

So it could happen. Much could go wrong, but success is not out of the question. And where would Canadians find themselves then? Stuck having to admit the man that polls show we love to despise just did us a great service and deserves our gratitude.

A lot of Canadians would probably rather have needles in their eyes than say something nice about Trump. But sometimes, as politicians love to say, you have to make the tough decisions. If sidling up to Trump is the price to be paid to gain freedom for Canada’s kidnapped hostages, it’s one we should all be willing to pay. Just close your eyes, and think about Canada.