Looming strike by Ontario teachers may hurt scheer
Acasual glance at the Canadian political landscape suggests Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives should be preparing for government. They have been comfortably ahead in almost every opinion poll in the past four months and one projection gives them a 64 per cent probability of winning the most seats in October.
But rather than cruising to victory, some Conservative strategists and MPs are concerned there is an iceberg in their path — a potential teachers’ strike in Ontario this fall that the federal Liberals will use to warn against governments that advocate austerity.
Justin Trudeau has maligned Ontario premier Doug Ford as often as he has disparaged Scheer — no great surprise since the federal leader remains a relative unknown to many people, with few obvious strengths or weaknesses. “He’s a bit like tofu,” said one Liberal. “Inoffensive, but flavourless.”
Ford, on the other hand, is a clear and present example of Conservatives in government.
Trudeau rehearsed his election lines at a rally in Mississauga in April: “Conservative politicians like Doug Ford and Andrew Scheer don’t seem to believe in investing for the future. They only think as far as the next election, not the next generation.”
Bob Bratina, a Liberal MP from Hamilton, said the Ford factor is a real positive for his party on the doorsteps. “When Ford’s name comes up, it is with a tone of disgust,” he said.
Opposition MPs admit privately the tactic is working, and that they are also hearing the Ontario premier’s name unprompted at the doors. “It is a live issue,” said one MP.
Erin O’Toole, the former veterans affairs minister and Conservative MP for Durham, said that his response when the Ford gov
ernment is raised is to point out funding cuts are the consequence of letting Liberals into government for multiple terms. “I say, ‘If you want to avoid belt-tightening, make sure we’re in.’ I urge them to hold the line and not give Trudeau a second term,” he said.
But that pushback appears to be having limited success.
“Soccer moms don’t like Doug,” said one Ontario Conservative. “Those dual-income families in the 905 are with us when we talk about lower taxes, tight finances, safe communities and support for families. But if they think we are mean-spirited or out of step with the mainstream, they leave us in droves.”
The message that Ford and Scheer are soulmates will resonate even more strongly in the event of a teachers’ strike.
A contract for the province’s teachers and education workers expires on August 31. While not yet in a strike position over larger class-sizes, a compensation cap and job losses, union leaders say the provincial government needs to display a “significant change of heart” or face labour action.
That would be a disaster for Scheer’s Conservatives. Voters angry at having to arrange care for kids still home after Labour Day could ruin any prospect of him making major gains in Canada’s largest province.
Make no mistake: this is the ball game. Most informed observers suggest the Liberals are likely to lose seats in Atlantic Canada, Manitoba, Alberta and British Columbia. Gains in Quebec should more than compensate for those defeats.
The imponderable is Ontario. Trudeau’s Liberals have lost support in the province since the 2015 election — the most recent EKOS poll suggests six percentage points, the CBC poll-tracker estimates nine points.
The problem for Scheer is that the Conservatives have also slipped in recent weeks, at the same time as the Ford government has bounced from crisis to crisis over its spending cuts (the EKOS poll has the Tories down six points since October 2015, the CBC tracker by just two).
It seems likely the Liberals could lose a handful of seats they had no right to win four years ago, particularly those newly constituted central Ontario ridings with strong Conservative support. But crucially, there are few signs of the breakthrough Scheer needs in the vote-rich 905 suburban belt around Toronto.
On the contrary, Ford’s budget cuts are hurting the Conservative brand.
Municipal politicians in Peel Region, which encompasses Brampton and Mississauga, have complained bitterly about provincial budget cuts they say will result in service reductions or tax increases.
While many voters in the suburbs have lost their enthusiasm for Trudeau, who now trails his own party in popularity, pollsters suggest they are not as hostile toward him as they are toward Ford.
That’s not to say it’s all over for Scheer. There may be no teachers’ strike, and Ford’s decision to shuffle his cabinet and stay out of the limelight for a time may improve his public standing. The enthusiasm gap for the Liberals may depress turnout, particularly among disillusioned progressive voters.
Campaigns matter, and the Conservatives seem to be on to something in making affordability and energy bills their focus. Those arguments could yet prove effective in the 905 and they may have a persuasive salesman, if, as has been suggested, Alberta premier Jason Kenney helps out his federal cousins in the ethnic communities he helped turn Conservative during the Harper years.
Whether employing the Albertan’s undoubted talents is a good idea remains to be seen. Trudeau has been berating Kenney almost as much as Ford and the premier’s intervention in the federal campaign may help persuade some swing voters that the Conservative barbarians really are at the gates.
Voters are by and large distracted, not dumb. They know the difference between federal and provincial governments. But as one Conservative MP noted, “They vote to send a message.” The polls suggest the message to Scheer is to talk about what he would do, not what he might cut.