AL teams setting new lows this year
Blue Jays, Orioles, Royals, Tigers on pace for 100 losses
There was a time when the American League dominated baseball.
The junior circuit has produced 66 of the 114 World Series winners and has dominated the all-star game, winning 13 of the 16 exhibition games since 2003, including the last six. It also bested the National League in interleague play every season from 2004 to 2017.
This year, however, the American League is on track to set a dubious mark.
Since its inception in 1901, three American League teams have lost 100 or more games in the same season on two occasions: 2002 (Detroit, Tampa and Kansas City) and last season (Baltimore, Kansas City and the Chicago White Sox).
According to the latest projections at FanGraphs, 2019 could be the first time four AL teams — Baltimore, Detroit, Kansas City and Toronto — meet or exceed the century mark in losses.
The Baltimore Orioles’ appearance on this list isn’t a surprise. Baltimore lost 115 games last season, fifth most in baseball history, and they didn’t improve much during the winter.
Its pitching staff allows more than two home runs per nine innings, the worst rate since 2006, the year MLB instituted leaguewide drug testing, and is on pace to give up 324 home runs. The American League record for most home runs allowed in a season is 242 by the 2017 Orioles.
The Tigers, Royals and Blue Jays weren’t considered top-tier teams, either — each was given less than a three per cent chance of qualifying for the post-season in 2019 — but even they are setting new lows for the league.
Detroit is batting .230 with a .669 OPS, creating runs at a rate that is 24 per cent lower than the league average after taking into account league and park effects, the worst AL performance of the last 14 years.
The Blue Jays and Royals are not too far behind, creating runs at a rate that is 19 per cent and 14 per cent lower than average, respectively, placing them as the fourthand 12th-worst hitting AL teams since 2006.
No wonder the National League is dominating its counterparts in interleague play at 76-57 (.571 win percentage) through Tuesday’s games, which, if sustained, would be the highest win rate for one league over another since 2006 and the third-highest win rate since 1997, the first year of interleague play.
An increased number of historically bad teams in the AL also creates a concentration of power at the top of the divisions.
The Houston Astros’ remaining schedule is against teams that are, collectively, below .500, giving them a 99 per cent chance at winning the AL West, per FanGraphs.
The Minnesota Twins are almost guaranteed to win the AL Central (91 per cent) for the first time since 2010.
And the New York Yankees should cruise in the AL East (83 per cent chance at winning a division title) with Tampa (72 per cent) and Boston (68 per cent) good bets to make the post-season.
The NL, by comparison, has just one team, the Los Angeles Dodgers, with a greater than 76 per cent chance to win their division.