MINORITY SCENARIO ONE
Liberals lead in seats by comfortable margin, Trudeau stays on as PM
There are two main rules to keep in mind about our parliamentary system and government formation. First, the ultimate test of whether a party forms government is whether it can hold the confidence of the House of Commons — in other words, whether certain major initiatives (such as the throne speech or the budget) can pass a vote in Parliament.
Second, a sitting prime minister stays prime minister unless he or she resigns or loses a confidence vote. So whatever happens on election day, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will stay in office (and the Liberals will stay as government) unless and until he decides to step down or attempts to stay on but is defeated by a confidence vote.
With 338 seats, the current threshold for a Commons majority is 170 seats. If the Liberals fall short of that but still have the most seats by a comfortable margin, they’ll have a very strong chance to stay on as government — but it will still depend on the seat counts of the NDP, Bloc and Greens. The more parties needed to get something passed in the Commons, the harder it is to hold on to government.
Similarly, if the Liberals’ margin of victory is small, it becomes harder for them to stay in power. Floor-crossing, resignations, by-elections and other unpredictable events could all change the balance of power quickly.
This scenario would change dramatically if the smaller parties decided to defeat the Liberals on a confidence matter and negotiate a governing deal with the Conservatives. At the moment, however, this is unlikely given the public positions of the parties. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has already ruled out supporting a Conservative government.
The Bloc and the Green Party are potentially more open-minded, but they are both offside with the Conservatives on big issues such as the carbon tax. Furthermore, Conservative leader Andrew Scheer said earlier this week that he would not negotiate with the Bloc.
The upshot is that if the Liberals hold the most seats, it is hard to see how the Conservatives would gather enough support to defeat them and take over as government.
But it is possible, of course. Political parties do have a habit of making compromises when it comes to gaining power.