MINORITY SCENARIO THREE
Conservatives lead in seats, but Trudeau tests confidence of Commons
Picture a scenario where the Conservatives win 140 seats, the Liberals win 130, and the NDP win 45. Trudeau and the Liberals would only need the support of the NDP to get above the 170 votes needed for a majority. As the incumbent prime minister, Trudeau could simply carry on in power if the NDP agreed to support him — and he wouldn’t need Payette’s sign-off.
“If the prime minister does not win the most seats and still chooses to remain prime minister and test confidence of the House, he may inform the governor general what he is doing, and he probably should — it’s constitutional good form — but he does not need her permission to test confidence because he remains her prime minister,” Lagassé said. “And she has no grounds to dismiss him in this scenario. He hasn’t formerly lost confidence and he’s telling you that he’s seeking to secure it.”
That is the cleanest scenario where Trudeau stays on as prime minister despite the Conservatives winning more seats.
If Trudeau needs the support of multiple parties (or independent MPS such as Wilson-raybould or Bernier) it becomes much harder to stay in power. It would rely on political negotiations.
Now picture a scenario where Trudeau tries to govern with the support of multiple parties, but it doesn’t work and he quickly loses a confidence vote in the Commons. This is where Payette’s discretion comes in. Even if Trudeau requests that Payette dissolve parliament and hold a new election, she does not have to follow that advice. She may instead see if there’s a different party leader who could hold the confidence of the Commons.
“Her discretion is a bit narrow because it depends,” Lagassé said. “Is there a viable, alternative government out there? What evidence is there that there’s a viable alternative? Is there an opposition leader who has concluded an agreement with somebody to make a government work? Do the numbers add up in the House of Commons that another party could govern and maintain confidence?”
It also depends how quickly this all happens after the election. Lagassé said the expectation is that you don’t go immediately back to the voters unless absolutely necessary. The rough guideline is you try to give parliament at least six months to make it work.