Next mayoral race could be intriguing

Though I’m sure few noticed, Mayor Don Iveson had to skip his annual state of the city speech this spring.

COVID -19 made the cancellation necessary, though it also saved Iveson the difficult task of articulating what exactly the state of Edmonton is during such unprecedented and uncertain times.

Still, had he given the speech, many in the room would have been hanging on every word for some indication of whether Iveson plans to run for a third term as mayor.

Had he, for example, announced a major new initiative, talked about “unfinished business” or spoken with fire about difficult relations with the province, it would have been interpreted as a sign he’ll be back on the ballot in October 2021.

Had he talked more philosophically about the future or stuck to a discussion of council’s record, speculation would have trended toward him not seeking re-election. And speculation is all we have right now, because Iveson has guarded what his intentions really are, possibly because he doesn’t yet know himself.

(The mayor’s office has said he plans to announce by December at the latest.)

Yes, such discussion may seem a little premature, but it’s worth noting that by this time next year, the race for mayor and council seats will be ramping up.

And barring some unforeseen development, it will be a race very much coloured by three factors, including some playing out now: Iveson’s presence or absence, how badly COVID-19 has disrupted normal business, and how voters perceive the city’s handling of the crisis.

As of late last year, the word around city hall was that Iveson was actually leaning toward stepping down next year in order to spend more time with his family or to seek a different political adventure.

But recent months have brought about a swing of the pendulum, such that more voices are now suggesting the mayor may want to remain the mayor for a while longer.

Whatever the case, should Iveson decide to seek a third term, he would be the presumptive favourite and would undoubtedly scare off some would-be contenders — though the race is still likely to be more competitive than the landslides Iveson won in 2013 and 2017.

For one thing, it’s no secret the UCP government is eager to see someone more aligned to its world view in the mayor’s seat, so you can expect those in conservative circles to be as galvanized as ever to elect one of their own.

Yet even among more centrist and progressive voters, it’s unclear whether Iveson could count on the same support he’s enjoyed in the past.

Some such voters I’ve spoken with suggest, for example, that Iveson and the current council deserve at least some of the blame for the frequent problems that have plagued city projects in recent years.

Others say that while Iveson was the right mayor for a time when the city required long-term planning and policy work on big issues like climate change, he’s less ideal for a time of economic struggle that requires transformational change.

That’s where the pandemic question comes in, because a crisis offers political opportunity.

Though the city has handled the shocks of COVID-19 relatively well so far, it’s become increasingly clear that the pandemic is a marathon that still has some tremors to deliver.

It doesn’t take a political scientist to figure out that voters tend to value experience and stability in such times, which could give incumbents even more of an advantage than they already enjoy.

However, should the local economy sour further, and should the city receive blame for that — deserved or not — you could see voters turn on Iveson and his colleagues in a hurry.

To date the councillor who’s been most up front about his interest in running for mayor is Mike Nickel, who’s hoping his experience and record of calling for fiscal restraint will see conservative forces coalesce around his campaign.

Yet I suspect that crowd will have at least one more option, potentially in the form of Coun. Tim Cartmell, who is less of a maverick but strikes me as having broader appeal.

In the centrist camp, Coun. Michael Walters may prove to be the leading challenger, and could go for it even if Iveson seeks re-election.

Coun. Andrew Knack has also not ruled out a run, though word is he may prefer to support a couple of other names and would jump in only if they pass.

As for those clamouring to see Edmonton get just its second woman mayor — and the first in 25 years — their best hopes likely rest with Coun. Sarah Hamilton.

Her abilities aren’t in doubt, but the question for her and Cartmell will be whether one term on council has given either of them enough political seasoning. (There is precedent for this, as Stephen Mandel became mayor in 2004 after one term on council).

Outside of city hall, former federal cabinet minister and city councillor Amarjeet Sohi has been touted as a potential mayor, though there’s no indication at this stage that’s he’s interested.

All in all, the various permutations at play here suggest Edmonton could see its most intriguing mayoral race in many years.

Who knows, by this time next spring, we may already have a good idea of whether Iveson’s state of the city speech in 2021 will be his last.