DISTRIBUTING COVID-19 VACCINE WON'T BE EASY

But it can't come soon enough as pandemic becoming deeply personal for more people

When COVID-19 first became a grim reality in March, experts talked of a long wait for a vaccine to appear — perhaps 12 to 18 months.

The predictions didn't account for COVID-19 creating a scientific immune response — an unprecedented rush to find vaccines in companies and laboratories around the world.

By any measure this has been an astounding success. There are now vaccines that work. They are on the way. It shows that humanity pulling together can still achieve brilliant things.

Despite some media focus on anti-vaxxers and COVID-19 deniers, immunization acceptance in Alberta is very high, according to a recent poll by Leger Research for the Herald and Postmedia.

Seventy-one per cent of people surveyed in late November said they are either very likely or somewhat likely to get the shot. Twenty-four per cent say they are not at all likely or not very likely to do so. The discrepancy in the total is due to those who didn't know or preferred not to answer.

“I think the 71 per cent total is quite high,” says Ian Large, Leger executive director.

And it's not surprising, either, given Alberta's frightening toll of cases and deaths, which signifies the worst provincial outbreak in the country.

The pandemic is getting deeply personal for more people too, as close friends and acquaintances fall ill.

Some of the vaccine reluctance “is probably less about anti-vaxxing and more about caution,” Large notes. “There's no doubt that the rush we're seeing puts a question in some people's minds.”

He thinks acceptance could rise further as the vaccines roll out.

For that, we have to count on another immune response — the political one.

Every political leader's career is at stake in the rush to get the adequate vaccine distributed quickly and efficiently.

For the federal Liberals, it means the difference between a majority government and opposition oblivion. Look for a mid-2021 federal election if vaccination begins to lift the COVID cloud.

Kenney's approval rating is only 40 per cent. Big problems with vaccine distribution could sink him; conversely, success could bring political recovery.

Kenney says Ottawa will have vaccine in Alberta by Jan. 5; indeed, some might arrive by late December.

Ontario's Premier Doug Ford, on the other hand, hasn't heard a specific date. The vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna aren't even approved by Health Canada, although the first will likely come next week.

The co-founder and chair of Moderna isn't surprised.

“Canada's not at the back of the line, but I can imagine that just like in the U.S. and everywhere else, this is a topic that will constantly be the subject of political debate,” Noubar Afeyan told the CBC last weekend.

“From where we sit as non-politicians, there's an expected set of things where I think society will be worried and will raise those concerns publicly, about everything that's (coming) next.”

For Canadians right now, the first concern is delivery. After that, it will be the safety and the efficacy of vaccines.

And of course, there's the crucial question of who gets it first.

The Kenney government's plan calls for the initial doses to go to people and staff in longterm care centres; seniors aged 75 and older; and health care workers likely to transmit the disease.

In the Leger poll, 57 per cent of respondents say the first doses should go to “front-line health care workers.”

By contrast, only 26 per cent say the first vaccinations should be received by “seniors, those living in long-term care centres, and other Albertans at higher risk.”

However, this “either-or” choice is in one sense a false division. Those vulnerable groups could all be vaccinated at pretty much the same time.

It's now the job of every leader to manage all this quickly, fairly and efficiently.

There will be problems, guaranteed.

This is a massive national effort. That's why Ottawa, Alberta and Ontario all have serving or retired military generals guiding vaccine distribution.

Against all expectations, the vaccines were created with incredible speed.

Now the same kind of energy is turning to delivery. The results could be just as surprising.

GETTY IMAGES Seventy-one per cent of Albertans surveyed in late November said they are either very likely or somewhat likely to get the COVID-19 vaccine shot, writes Don Braid. Twenty-four per cent say they are not at all likely or not very likely to. The discrepancy in the total is due to those who didn't know or preferred not to answer.