China moves to subdue Taiwan
Risk of conflict at its highest level in decades
TAIPEI • Months after eliminating a popular challenge to its rule in Hong Kong, China is turning to an even higher-stakes target: self-governing Taiwan. The island has been bracing for conflict with China for decades, and in some respects, that battle has now begun.
It's not the final, titanic clash that Taiwan has long feared, with Chinese troops storming the beaches. Instead, the People's Liberation Army, China's two-millionstrong military, has launched a form of “grey-zone” warfare. In this irregular type of conflict, which stops short of an actual shooting war, the aim is to subdue the foe through exhaustion.
Beijing is conducting waves of threatening forays from the air while ratcheting up existing pressure tactics to erode Taiwan's will to resist, say current and former senior Taiwanese and U.S. military officers. The flights, they say, complement amphibious landing exercises, naval patrols, cyber attacks and diplomatic isolation.
The risk of conflict is now at its highest level in decades. PLA aircraft are flying menacingly towards airspace around Taiwan almost daily, sometimes launching multiple sorties on the same day. Since mid-september, Chinese warplanes have flown more than 100 of these missions, according to a Reuters compilation of flight data drawn from official statements by Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense.
The data shows that in periods when political tension across the Taiwan Strait peaks, China sends more aircraft, including some of its most potent fighters and bombers.
These encroachment tactics are “super effective,” Admiral Lee Hsi-ming, who until last year was the commander of the Taiwanese military, told Reuters in an interview.
“You say it's your garden, but it turns out that it is your neighbour who's hanging out in the garden all the time. With that action, they are making a statement that it's their garden — and that garden is one step away from your house.”
Under President Xi Jinping, China has accelerated the development of forces the PLA would need one day to conquer the island of 23 million — a mission that is the country's top military priority, according to Chinese and Western analysts.
With Hong Kong and the restive regions of Tibet and Xinjiang under ever-tighter control, Taiwan is the last remaining obstacle to the Communist Party's monopoly on power. In a major speech early last year, Xi said that Taiwan, which Beijing regards as a Chinese province, “must be, will be” unified with China. He set no deadline but would not rule out the use of force.
There has been a “clear shift” this year in Beijing's posture, a senior Taiwanese security official responsible for intelligence on China told Reuters. Chinese military and government agencies have switched from decades of “theoretical talk” about taking Taiwan by force to debating and working on plans for possible military action, the official said.
In a speech Tuesday, Taiwanese President Tsai Ingwen alluded to the shift. The island democracy is under unrelenting pressure from “authoritarian forces,” she warned, without going into detail. “Taiwan has been at the receiving end of such military threats on a daily basis.”
Admiral Lee, the retired Taiwanese military chief, believes the only thing holding back the PLA from a full assault is that it hasn't yet achieved the overwhelming firepower needed to overrun the island. Even so, China's military buildup over the past 20 years means it is now “far ahead” of Taiwan, he said. “Time is definitely not on Taiwan's side,” he said. “It's only a matter of time for them to gather enough strength.”
In a written statement, China's Taiwan Affairs Office said Beijing is committed to “peaceful reunification” with Taiwan, a formulation it has used for decades.
Taiwan's defence ministry said in a statement it is stepping up naval and air patrols and improving combat readiness to counter China's greyzone tactics. The military “sticks to the firm stance of `not provoking and not being afraid of the enemy,' and the principle of ` the closer they get to the main island, the more active is our response.' ”
Bringing Taiwan under Beijing's wing would give the PLA a commanding position in Asia.
Standing in the way of that dream is the United States. It would be catastrophic to America's dominance in the region if Chinese forces took control of Taiwan, most military analysts believe,
The administration of President Donald Trump has been rushing new weapons into service and realigning U.S. forces in Asia to counter China. Regional powers Japan, India and Australia are tightening cooperation with the Americans.
It isn't clear how president- elect Joe Biden will respond to Xi's steppedup pressure on Taiwan. A spokesman for Biden's transition team declined to comment.
Lee, however, says Taiwan shouldn't rely on America's help.
“How do you defend Taiwan? All I can hear is that the United States will intervene,” he said. “What reason is there to believe that the United States will sacrifice the lives of its own children to defend Taiwan?” He added: “My best bet is my own strength, to stop people from bullying me.”