AMERICA CAN'T AFFORD TO KILL MORE PIPELINES
Employment concerns should force U.S. lawmakers to approve other projects
This is an alarming moment for Alberta, with the Keystone XL pipeline axed by U.S. President Joe Biden and green activists keen to see the death of more pipeline projects.
Several major targets are crucial to Alberta's future, the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion to Burnaby, B.C., and Line 3, which moves Alberta crude down to Minnesota and Wisconsin.
The Trans Mountain expansion and Line 3 would give Alberta enough pipeline capacity until 2030, with the ability to move about an additional one million barrels per day, says independent energy analyst Samir Kayande of Calgary.
But in green activist circles, hope is high these pipelines will also die. As B.C. green activist Torrance Coste put it, “Not too long ago, there were four major oilsands pipeline proposals — Northern Gateway, Energy East, Keystone XL and TMX. Three down, one to go.”
American actor Daryl Hannah joined in on Twitter, also calling for Line 3 to get axed: “Alright!!! Back to the work. There's still a climate crisis and mass extinctions and Indigenous rights and systemic racism that need to be urgently addressed. Let's go !!!!! ”
Both the Trans Mountain and Line 3 projects will replace aging, deteriorating and potentially leaky pipe with far safer pipe.
But the abiding focus of green activists isn't so much pipeline safety, nor is it protecting the union jobs of pipeline workers. It's not supporting the dozens of Indigenous groups that strongly back the two projects, nor is it pushing for the U.S. to buy oil from a socially and environmentally progressive ally like Canada, as opposed to Russia, Iraq or Venezuela.
To get more insight into where Biden will go, I talked to U.S. energy expert Anas Alhajji.
Biden is known as a moderate Democrat, Alhajji said. Axing Keystone — something former president Barack Obama already did once in 2015 — had broad support within the moderate wing of the party.
But the Democrats now hold the presidency and both houses of Congress, meaning there will be ample opportunity to push through major climate change policy.
“The fear is that the extremists in the party will pressure him to move farther left,” Alhajji said, adding this could mean the U.S. will focus only on climate change, not on energy security and job creation.
Moving too far left sounds like a risky move, given that the Democrats could lose control of Congress in two years. Rasmussen polling is already reporting that 51 per cent of likely American voters oppose Biden shutting down Keystone, with 36 in favour and 13 per cent not sure.
It's also the case that when Alberta heavy oil is blocked, the U.S. must turn to other heavy oil suppliers, such as Latin American countries, which are already maxed out on exports, Venezuela, which is under sanction, and Iraq. Alhajji said dryly, “Iraq and Venezuela, two countries that are known for their highest environmental standards in the world! Right?”
Alhajji expects Trans Mountain will be completed and will ignite great interest in Canada for the Asian market. “Once oil producers have a taste of Asia, they will never go back.”
Alhajji is less positive about the future of Enbridge's Line 3 and also Line 5 in Michigan, saying their operation could be tied up endlessly in court and regulatory battles.
But Line 3 has many factors in its favour. Enbridge has deals with three key American Indigenous bands to permit the project, with $100 million to be spent to train Indigenous workers and on contracting. The $2.9-billion project also amounts to the biggest private construction project in Minnesota state history. It's expected to create roughly 4,200 construction jobs, all of them for unionized workers. It has the support of Democrat Gov. Tim Walz, who predicts construction will go forward.
During their leadership bids, Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris refused to comment on Line 3's future. I suspect that means they see no need to get involved in a nearly done deal.
And I predict that in a depressed POST-COVID world, job creation will be the new trump card.
For example, when two Indigenous bands tried recently to get an injunction to stop work on Line 3, commissioner Valerie Means of the Minnesota's Public Utilities Commission shot down the attempt, saying a stay would represent “an unconscionable disregard for the irreparable harm to these workers. I will not support granting the motion to stay and driving these workers into unemployment.”
Strong words, but in tough times I expect to hear such sentiments win the day.
Political leaders like Biden might not like Alberta pipelines, but they might have more fear of mass unemployment, not to mention being forced into business with unreliable dictatorships in Russia and Venezuela.