Province delayed restrictions despite troubling COVID numbers: documents
The Alberta government waited weeks to implement new COVID-19 restrictions in the fall after hitting internal benchmarks that signalled hospitals could become overwhelmed, new documents show.
The documents, obtained by the Opposition NDP through freedom of information requests and released publicly Monday, show Alberta Health Services identified early warning triggers for daily case numbers and rate of infection spread at the end of September that would lead to exceeded ICU capacity even with immediate enhanced public health restrictions.
The triggers were identified as a five-day average daily case count of 500, along with an R value of 1.45.
The number of new cases began exceeding 500 per day in October. At the time, the government did not publish the R value.
In late November, Premier Jason Kenney announced new public health restrictions, including a ban on indoor gatherings, new restrictions on businesses, and the shift for older students to online learning. At that time, the R value was 1.12.
Kenney announced further restrictions when the province hit 1,727 new daily cases in early December, including closing casinos, gyms and dine-in service at restaurants.
The documents show officials were to brief Kenney on the warning thresholds in late September.
NDP Leader Rachel Notley pointed to the documents as proof Kenney had updated modelling he denied having in the legislature in October.
“Albertans have lost trust in Jason Kenney because he keeps saying things that aren't true,” said Notley.
“By the time Jason Kenney emerged from hiding and actually did something, Alberta's health heroes were double-bunking COVID patients,” said Notley, who added that stress on the health-care system that forced the delay of thousands of surgeries was preventable.
Kenney said in the legislature that long-term modelling has not been accurate, and the NDP'S focus on models that were unreliable showed a focus on fearmongering that undermined confidence in public health policy.
“There is no public utility in developing and releasing long-term models, (but) we had developed an early warning system basically 14 days out, and we've been transparent about what those numbers are in the current third spike of COVID -19,” said Kenney.
Kenney also repeated his assertion that there is no “modelling” — only projections — and the documents prove that.
“There are no models to share — there are short-term projections. I was very explicit — in fact I included slides at two of my recent news conferences which incorporate those projections that are not based on abstract assumptions but real hard numbers,” said Kenney.
Kenney has said the province expects to hit 2,000 new daily case numbers and potentially 20,000 active cases by the end of this month.
A Sept. 2 email from Amy Colquhoun, a manager with Alberta Health, to AHS staff, suggested decision-makers were shunning long-term projections and might not support recommended “outcomes,” although the email does not specify to what leadership she was referring.
AHS official Hussain Usman responded that many departments had asked for the information in order to plan, including buying equipment, and indicated AHS would continue working on predictive modelling anyway.