Calling election in August likely best bet for PM

Election junkies, start your engines. From the appointment of a new governor general to a flurry of spending announcements, an early Canadian federal election is now a foregone conclusion. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh can ask the prime minister to hold off for another two years, but no one is listening; across the country, parties and candidates are gearing up for the fight that's palpably in the air.

So when will Justin Trudeau pull the trigger? There are many factors at play: his party's stance in the polls, the state of COVID and the vaccine rollout, and regional issues including the Alberta referendum on equalization, scheduled for Oct. 7.

Indeed, Trudeau would love nothing better than to use Alberta Premier Jason Kenney and Ontario Premier Doug Ford, both deeply unpopular at present, to dampen federal Conservative Leader Erin O'toole's support. Having Kenney preaching the evils of equalization while O'toole is trying to drum up votes in Quebec is a Liberal dream, as is reminding Ontario voters of their government's chaotic and ill-received pandemic response.

There are two schools of thought on timing. The first would have Trudeau call the vote in mid to late August, when Canadians are too busy breaking out of their COVID cages to pay any attention, with voting day in the second half of September, after the kids are back in school and before a fourth wave spoils the party.

The second would see Trudeau drop the writ in early September and the vote take place shortly after Thanksgiving. This would give the electorate the time to gather with family and friends (within COVID confines, of course), talk some politics, solidify their choices, and provide fodder for one last big poll before they cast their ballots.

Given the complications of COVID, Trudeau would be better to start the campaign while the going is good, both in terms of mood and ability to connect with voters at low risk. Outdoor events will be possible throughout the summer; once October hits, colder weather will be sending people back inside, which will restrict the size and nature of gatherings. The last thing any party wants is for its rally to morph into a super-spreader event, something that would be minimized by gathering in outdoor spaces.

And while politics may not be everyone's idea of a good time, those gatherings may be more welcome than usual, given Canadians' desire to get back to some semblance of normal. Based on previous, non-pandemic elections, politicians know that meeting a candidate in the flesh increases the likelihood of engagement and support. While social media and virtual campaigning will have its place, there may be a desire for some more old fashioned door to door and in-person activities.

And all other indicators favour the prime minister getting going while the going is good. The latest Abacus poll shows that despite the ups and downs of the pandemic, Trudeau has maintained strong popularity, with 40 per cent having a favourable opinion of him, while 39 per cent have a negative one. While Jagmeet Singh outperforms Trudeau with a 38 per cent positive to 26 per cent negative rating, his party is still in the low 20s in popularity. Erin O'toole, on the other hand, scored 40 per cent negative to 20 per cent positive, leading some pundits to take to Twitter claiming desperate Conservatives were whispering about bringing back Stephen Harper.

One unexpected wrinkle is the implosion of the Green party, which is still busy playing knife-the-leader. Even if the party gets it together, much damage has been done, with voters potentially turned off and turning away. The question is who will benefit most if their

6.5 per cent of the 2019 vote slips away: the

NDP or the Liberals?

As for Quebec, all eyes are on the Senate and Bill C-10. Will the upper chamber be recalled to pass the changes to the Broadcasting Act, which draws great support in Quebec, as well as Bill C-6, outlawing conversion therapy, before the writ is dropped, or will both pieces of legislation die on the order paper?

As Trudeau weighs all these considerations, seeking to score a coveted majority, Canadians are busily getting back to their almost-normal lives. In politics, as in post-pandemic life, it seems, everything old is new again.