Oilers working out the math on expansion
Unless Edmonton Oilers GM
Ken Holland has changed his mind on his math for the Seattle expansion draft protected list and wants to detour from his stated three defencemen/seven forwards road, unrestricted free agent Adam Larsson isn't getting signed before the lists have to go into the NHL Friday.
Unless Holland wants to go eight positional players (four D and four forwards), he has the recently acquired Duncan Keith, Darnell Nurse and Ethan Bear as his three protected D. While he continues to have serious talks with Larsson's agent J.P. Barry about bringing Larsson back to play in his second pairing, even if it appeared that a deal was imminent (three or four years at $4 million or a little more a season), it makes no sense after the Keith trade to sign him before Friday.
If Larsson were signed now, either Bear would have to be exposed or traded for a forward, to go the 3-7 route, or Holland could go 4 and 4 but then he would have to decide on protecting Jesse Puljujarvi or Kailer Yamamoto as his fourth forward after Connor Mcdavid, Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-hopkins. He would lean to Puljujarvi because he's 40 pounds and eight inches taller and had 15 goals this season to Yamamoto's eight. Then Yamamoto would be there and since he's from Spokane, snapped up by Seattle.
“I've talked lots to J.P. Last week, (coach) Dave Tippett and I were on a call with J.P. and Adam and his Swedish agent Peter Werner and told Adam we want him back, told him how important he is to the team,” said Holland. And I also tipped him off I was having some conversations with Stan Bowman and there was a possibility a Keith deal would happen.”
“Certainly Tipp said to Adam if the deal went through, he saw Adam and Duncan Keith being a good second pair for us. But Adam is an unrestricted free agent (for the first time) and Adam has to make a decision as to what he feels is best for himself and his career. So if I was confident (in a signing), we would probably have it done by now because I've been talking to Adam/j.p. Barry since probably February or March. So we'll see.”
If Larsson is unsigned by Friday, Seattle gets from July 18-21 to talk to him exclusively. Full free-agency starts July 28.
Larsson and Tampa's fellow right-shot D David Savard are the two prize shutdown guys as UFA targets. Savard, 31 in October is coming off a five-year deal with a $4.25 million cap hit. Larsson is 28 and ending a six-year contract at $4.167 million.
WHO WILL SEATTLE TARGET?
If the Oilers protect seven forwards, the fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh would be Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, Josh Archibald and probably Zack Kassian, which would leave winger Tyler Benson and centre Jujhar Khaira as the two top forwards exposed for the price. Defenceman William Lagesson and goalie Alex Stalock would be available, too.
“If I'm Seattle I'm going for potential, and Benson has that. You know what Khaira is,” said TSN commentator Craig Button.
Benson, 23, has to get over being stereotyped as a tweener — too good for the AHL but not good enough to be an every day NHLER. He's had 141 points in 156 games on the farm in Bakersfield but just one assist in seven Oilers games, albeit in spot duty.
“He's a smart player and last season started digging into the penalty-killing,” said Tippett. “He's an interesting player for us. He's basically a left-winger but played some right, too. Eventually guys jump in and earn their spots and away they go. That's what we're hoping for with Tyler.”
HOUSEKEEPING MOVE
The Oilers weren't going to qualify restricted free-agent goalie Dylan Wells, not with Olivier Rodrigue and the recently signed Russian Ilya Konovalov competing for jobs in Bakersfield. But Carolina needed a goalie to be exposed in the expansion draft so Holland moved Wells to the Hurricanes for future considerations. Wells, on the taxisquad here for months, dressed for one NHL game in Montreal this season as backup to Mike Smith when Mikko Koskinen had COVID test issues.
WHAT'S IN A NUMBER?
Nobody will have to give up their No. 2 jersey with Keith coming in. Nobody has worn it since fellow defenceman Andrej Sekera left in 2019 for Dallas after being bought out. He'll be the 14th player to wear No. 2 as an Oiler, with Lee Fogolin the first. Keith's No. 2 will certainly be retired by the Hawks when his career is over — three Cups, two Norris trophies and voted one of the 100 best players in NHL history.
This ’n’ that: The Oilers continue to try to move Koskinen, who likely won't be protected in the expansion draft — offering to eat some of his $4.5 million cap hit. The Hawks weren't interested as part of the Keith deal. With Pekka Rinne retiring in Nashville would they take him for one year at $3 million? ... The Oilers will pick 20th, then not again until 116 (round 4) in the draft. Presume Holland will try to get a selection somehow in, say, the third-round. The other picks are 180, 186 and 212. No. 52 goes to Detroit for Andreas Athanasiou, No. 84 to Calgary for James Neal, No. 148 to Anaheim via Ottawa for Tyler Ennis. They are getting an extra sixth-rounder (186) for John Marino.
Adam is an unrestricted free agent and Adam has to make a decision as to what he feels is best for himself and his career.