Numbers just don't add up for Neal, Oilers
Fourth-line winger a buyout candidate as free-agent market set to open this week
James Neal's on-ice numbers here are fine: 84 games, 41 points, 24 goals.
But off-ice, his Us$5.75-million cap number for the next two seasons — especially for a fourth-line/power play guy — look like a point of no return. Edmonton Oilers GM Ken Holland hasn't bought him out yet with free-agency opening Wednesday, but he likely will if he can't trade the winger to a team with lots of cap room and adding an asset sweetener. He must have Arizona's Bill Armstrong on speed dial.
If Neal leaves, it comes two years and a week after he arrived in the Milan Lucic trade on
July 19, 2019. If bought out at two-thirds of Neal's number, the Oilers will save about $3.8 million this year and next to give Holland extra money to spend on a free agent Wednesday.
Maybe he can use it on a thirdline centre.
Plus, Holland has to re-sign second-line right-winger Kailer Yamamoto in the next while (maybe in the $2 -million-a-year range on a bridge deal) and give his best defenceman Darnell Nurse a big bump on an expected eight-year contract, starting in 2021-22, along with winger Jesse Puljujarvi.
The downside with a buyout: Oilers will have $1.92 million of dead money on their cap for Neal for the next four seasons. They have $1.5 million for Andrej Sekera, too, after his 2019 buyout for this 2021-22 season.
“James gave us a really good burst for the first 40 games his first season,” said Holland. “Then he got injured (broken foot) and went dry. This season he got COVID (before camp). At his $5.75 million, with his age (34 in September) and where's he's at (fourth-line and net-front with Alex Chiasson on the power play) ...”
Too much. If he was making $1.5 million, fine, but not $5.75 million.
The Mikko Koskinen goalie buyout/trade/bring-back situation remains fluid. Holland has investigated a trade, likely eating some of his $4.5 million. There doesn't appear to be any takers, as of today.
While it appears a Koskinen trade is slim, so was the Lucic trade.
LOOK WHO'S AVAILABLE
It's always interesting to see what players don't receive qualifying offers and are now unrestricted free agents. Josh Archibald was once in that boat, cast aside by Arizona. The list of UFAS now includes Chicago Blackhawks forward Pius Suter, who had 14 goals and 27 points last season as an NHL rookie but couldn't agree on new deal. Presume Duncan Keith would have a scouting report, up close on the Swiss player.
Also Anaheim not surprisingly didn't qualify winger Danton Heinen at his $2.8 million. How about him at $1 million for a bottom-six role here? Good shot, decent skill, not a grinder type. Boston didn't qualify winger Nick Ritchie.
YOU NEVER KNOW WHO'S CALLING
After Edmonton-born Luke Prokop came out proudly as a gay hockey player, he got universal support, even from people he never knew would reach out to him. Like Elton John. “I was driving, picked up my phone, saw it was a New York number and it was Elton John's publicist. She was looking for Luke's number. After talking for a while, I knew it was legit. Pretty cool,” said Prokop's local agent Gerry Johannson.
This ’n’ that: Best place for Tyson Barrie if not resigned here: Seattle. They don't have a power-play QB after their draft ... Adam Larsson's four-year deal in Seattle isn't as cut and dried as his former six-year contract here where he made $4.16 million every year. He gets $2.5 million in salary this season, then $3.5 mil, $5.5 mil and 4.5 mil to add up to $16 million. If Mark Giordano stays with the Kraken and doesn't get traded, it's expected they will be partners ... Before the Oilers gave up the 20th overall pick to Minnesota for No. 22 and the 90th pick, Holland told Wild GM Bill Guerin he had to see who Nashville took at No. 19 first. When they took Russian forward Fedor Svechkov, Holland called Guerin to green-light the trade of No. 20. So maybe the Oilers were looking at Svechkov at 20? ... Talking to scouts, all are highly complimentary of Xavier Bourgault, the Oilers' pick at No. 22. They praise his vision and his deceptiveness making plays. They feel he has a good shot at making Canada's under-20 team for the world juniors here ... One name to keep an eye on in free agency: Nashville's Mikael Granlund plays wing or could be a thirdline centre ... Hearing Jesper Wallstedt, the Swedish national junior goalie the Oilers passed on, is coming over to play junior in Portland and not staying with Lulea in the SHL ... The Oilers are hopeful winger Matvei Petrov, their sixth-round pick, does decide to come to play in the Ontario Hockey League in North Bay after he was the first-overall pick in the 2020 import draft. Opposing NHL scout on the Oilers taking Brandon winger Jake Chiasson in Round 4. “He really grows on you. I think he could be a third-line NHL player,” he said ... Carolina qualified ex-oilers farmhand goalie Dylan Wells, who was on Edmonton's taxi squad for months and actually dressed for a game in Montreal when Koskinen had COVID testing irregularities. The Oilers did Wells a favour dealing him there because they probably weren't going to qualify him ... We'll see if Caleb Jones and brother Seth are a partnership on the blue line for the Blackhawks for any time this season ... The Oilers probably see defenceman Kris Russell playing about 50 games this year as a 6/7 guy. If Holland signs another left-shot third-pairing defensive D to play with Evan Bouchard, it will probably be in the $1-million range. UFA Slater Koekkoek? No better than 50-50 he's back.