As cases rise, vaccination wall of defence must be stronger

After we've enjoyed the luxury of indifference for a few weeks, the daily COVID -19 case count is suddenly very relevant to Albertans once again.

It was a little disconcerting to how quickly we went from 40 or 50 cases a day to 173 at the end of last week (which the government initially tried to pass off as 98 new cases, in a somewhat underhanded data shell game). Now that the Delta variant appears to be dominant, further increases seem all but guaranteed.

To whatever extent we are in or on the cusp of a fourth wave, it is clear that vaccines have been a game-changer. Hospitalizations have continued to decline, which is very much in keeping with our understanding of the impact these vaccines continue to have.

But while we're not likely to see the sorts of hospitalization levels we saw in the second and third waves, if cases continue to rise, hospitalization levels will inevitably do so, as well.

This doesn't need to mean a return to restrictions. Vaccines remain our best line of defence, but that wall of protection isn't yet where it needs to be. Last week, we inched past the 75 per cent mark for first doses for eligible Albertans. We're at about 62 per cent of eligible Albertans fully vaccinated. These numbers have made a huge difference here, and many countries around the world would love to be anywhere close to those sorts of levels.

But in the Canadian context, we're lagging behind other provinces, most of which are around or above 80 per cent for first doses.

It would be unfair to lump all or even most of the blame on the provincial government.

The good news is that we have the vaccines we need.

Certainly, vaccines have been made widely available and the pro-vaccine message from the government is loud and consistent.

However, it would be fair to note that the ending of all provincial health restrictions, which was tied to a specific vaccination target, removed any built-in incentive to attain a higher rate. Hitting 70 per cent of Albertans with a first dose was an important milestone, but it was in no way the finish line.

We probably need to get to at least 80 per cent of eligible Albertans fully vaccinated to really contain the situation — probably more like 80 per cent of the total population.

A week ago, Health Minister Tyler Shandro announced that more vaccine initiatives would be coming. A couple of days later, we got an announcement about a government-business partnership to launch a new mobile vaccine clinic. That's certainly helpful and welcome, but probably not a total difference-maker. Let's hope the minister's tease was about more than just that.

The good news is that we have the vaccines we need. And it's possible that concern over the Delta variant or rising case numbers might be enough to spur some fence-sitters to finally take the jab. The province, meanwhile, may need to at least open the door to options it has so far refused to put on the table.

The mask mandate was among the restrictions that fell by the wayside on July 1. But holding up a potential return of mask mandates if vaccine levels don't reach a certain point might be another powerful incentive.

There's also the option of requiring proof of vaccination in certain settings. The U.K., for example, has made proof of vaccination a requirement for nightclubs and other large venues. The Stampede's Nashville North gave us a bit of a glimpse into how this might work here.

Given that Albertans in their 20s represent a disproportionate number of new infections while also having the lowest rate of vaccination, this could be an effective way of controlling the former and encouraging the latter.

We've made tremendous strides in Alberta, but we need to set ourselves up for success into the fall and winter. As such, the vaccine push needs to be the top priority.