STRETCH DRIVE STARTS NOW FOR BLUE JAYS
Toronto needs to pound weak opponents —starting with the Nats — to make playoffs
With an off day on Monday to recuperate from the journey from Washington (the west coast state) to Washington (the east coast city), the Toronto Blue Jays had an opportunity to catch their breath and ponder the rest of the season.
The calendar still says August, but for a team with plenty left to do to make the post-season, it's safe to surmise that with 45 games remaining in the 2021 season, the stretch drive begins now.
So what will it take for the Jays to catch an American League wild-card spot, the realistic playoff goal for the team at this point?
By now we're well aware of the formula this team needs for success — a stingy effort from the starter and plenty of run support, not unlike Sunday's 8-3 win in Seattle. Putting away teams early with the lethal order seems to be their most reliable path to success, at least until the bullpen gets shored up.
At some point, the Jays are going to need to find a way to win tight games, however, situations that have eluded them far too often this season. The offensive firepower is there, and with five players having hit 20 home runs or more and five of them having driven in 70 or more, the hitting just needs to be more consistent and clutch in late-game situations.
But more important is what the standings show, that's there is plenty of work ahead. What's it going to take to jump over at least two teams currently ahead of them in the standings?
Based on the form of the teams above them and the two most recent full 162-game seasons, likely more than the 90 wins that seem to be an artificial target set by some of the more optimistic of Jays fans. The fact that the New York Yankees, Oakland Athletics (and more recently the Boston Red Sox) keep winning suggests that a higher win total is more realistic.
In fact, it wouldn't be a shock if those two most recent full seasons are a solid indicator in terms of expectation. In 2019, the Tampa Bay Rays needed 96 wins to grab the second wild-card spot, while Oakland required 97 victories in the campaign before that.
The Jays are 4.5 games behind the Red Sox in the race for the final wild-card spot, with the Yankees two games in front of Toronto as a potential road block.
To get to 95 wins (for argument's sake), the team needs to go 32-13 over the remainder of the season — a tall order, though not impossible. To necessitate such a run, manager Charlie Montoyo's team will need to beat up on the weak links in the schedule — and yes, we're talking about the Baltimore Orioles, who the Jays face 10 times, including the final three games of the season.
It would help to get a good start in D.C. as well against a Nationals team that has lost seven in a row, is 1-9 over its past 10, and is 16 games below .500.
Simply put, the Jays will need to be much closer to the team that sprinted out to a 9-2 posttrade deadline mark than the one that went 3-4 this past week in Anaheim and Seattle.
Meaningful September baseball awaits, but just how meaningful and how deep into the month it lasts depends on the Jays' ability to find some consistency on offence and some reliability from the bullpen.
WHAT A RELIEF?
The uneven performances by members of the bullpen continue to be a worry for the Jays, but could help soon be on the way?
They all may be in various states of readiness, but by some point in the next homestand, it's not out of the question that we would see some combination of Tim Mayza, Thomas Hatch, Nate Pearson and Joakim Soria. All four are working their way back from various ailments, and presuming reasonable health, there's no need to hold back now.
Each of those four loom as intriguing possibilities who could provide more stability — and power — in the 'pen.
Montoyo was encouraged by Brad Hand's bounce-back effort in striking out a pair in his one inning of work, and although Jordan Romano's pitch count climbed to 28 on Sunday, his fastball was routinely sitting at 99 miles per hour.
Hatch would figure as a potential long-man and rotation backup, a role that Ross Stripling seemed headed toward before suffering an oblique injury.
Meanwhile, it will be interesting to see how an influx of fresh arms will affect the immediate future of Rafael Dolis. In his most recent appearance on Sunday, Dolis was hit hard, allowing three hits and three runs without recording an out.
AROUND THE BASES
The win-loss stat for starting pitchers carries far less meaning than it once did, but when Steven Matz earned the `W' on Sunday, he joined Hyun-jin Ryu at the 10-win mark. Matz became the 21st player in MLB to hit the 10-win mark ... We'll get a better idea of the progress of George Springer's ankle sprain prior to Wednesday's game, but it's safe to say the Jays won't rush the centre-fielder back on defence. We could see him in a pinch-hitting role for the pair against the Nats ... Alek Manoah gets the start in Tuesday's opener against Washington followed by Jose Berrios on Wednesday ... A reminder that Tuesday's contest is one of the Youtube-only deals, so it won't be available on conventional TV.