Blanchet's Bloc could deny Trudeau his majority

The bus says it all. Emblazoned on a sky-blue background, the word “Québécois” looms fivefeet tall next to an even taller image of Bloc Québécois leader Yves-françois Blanchet's face. The message is as subtle as a St-jean-baptiste Day parade: the Bloc is the party of Quebecers, for Quebecers ... and Blanchet is Québécois to the core.

Francophone, a native of Drummondville, a former teacher, artist manager, and provincial Parti Québécois minister, Blanchet took the helm of the Bloc in 2019 when it was languishing at 10 seats. Under his leadership, the party roared back to life in that year's federal election, gaining 22 seats, mostly at the expense of the Conservatives and the NDP. The orange wave of former leader Jack Layton had long receded; under Jagmeet Singh, the party held on to only one riding, Rosemont-la Petitepatrie, on the island of Montreal. Andrew Scheer's Tories dropped to 10 seats, and former Tory-turned-people's-party-leader Maxime Bernier went down to defeat in Beauce, in the region of Quebec City.

When the votes were counted, the final tally stood at Liberals 35, Bloc 32, Conservatives 10, NDP 1.

This time around, the fight will be between the Liberals and the Bloc. The Bloc has set itself a target of 40 ridings, hoping to wrest eight from both the Grits and the Tories. Seven of these are “en region” — a.k.a., outside the island of Montreal: Québec, Châteauguay-lacolle, Chicoutimi, Sherbrooke, Longueuil– Charles-lemoyne, Gaspésie–les Îles-de-lamadeleine and Argenteuil. The lone Montreal riding is Hochelaga, which Liberals recaptured from the NDP in 2019.

“We are talking about ridings whose figures suggest that the very powerful machine of the Bloc in 2019 was very close to winning,” Blanchet told Le Journal de Montréal this week.

“We have the right to be ambitious. We have ambition for Quebec.”

But how will that ambition express itself?

The biggest conundrum of the Bloc lies in its very existence. Is it here to extract concessions from Ottawa and allow primarily francophone Quebecers to live their best life within Canada? Or is its ultimate goal to create an independent country?

On paper, the Bloc's purpose is separation, but the party doesn't scream that from the rafters. Instead, it emphasizes its role in defending Quebec's interests. On his “summer tour” this year, Blanchet touted the federal government's support for the province's aluminum industry and pro-french amendments to the Official Languages Act, and the passage of Bill 96, which essentially gives Quebec Premier François Legault the ability to amend its constitution and affirm Quebec as a nation with French as its official language.

So expect Trudeau to try to put Blanchet in a corner on the sovereignty question, especially in the leaders' French debate scheduled for Sept. 8. Is he or isn't he going to bring back the separatist debate? With the recent accord on daycare, and co-operation between Ottawa and Quebec at an all time high, doesn't Quebec have it better in a united Canada?

And while Blanchet may claim to be the best “standard bearer” for Quebec, Trudeau actually tops him on an important question: whether he can “understand people like me.” In a recent survey by Navigator, 46 per cent of Quebec respondents say Blanchet somewhat or strongly understands them; but even more (50 per cent) feel that way about Trudeau. Both Singh and O'toole score far less well, at 38 per cent and 32 per cent respectively.

Major issues in Quebec for this election will include mandatory vaccination (Blanchet recently criticized Trudeau for forcing vaccinations on public sector employees when the government's embattled Phoenix pay system can't even get them their cheques on time), climate change (opposition to increased oil and gas exploration in the West could be a flashpoint), and the economy (which tops the list coast to coast in almost every poll).

Trudeau knows that if the Bloc makes gains in Quebec, he can kiss his dreams of majority government goodbye.

Expect a lot of attention paid to la belle province in the coming 34 days.