A look at the election races that matter the most
FIERCELY CONTESTED RACES IN B.C., QUEBEC AND ONTARIO COULD DECIDE WHO WINS — AND BY HOW MUCH
ANational Post analysis of the 2019 election shows that the Liberals' search for a majority this year will likely come down to a handful of ridings in B.C., Ontario and Quebec.
The analysis of all the results from 2019, and two byelections last year, show where the closest ridings in the country are, and they're mostly in those three provinces.
On election day in 2019, the difference between first and second in Port Moody—coquitlam, the tightest race in the country, was just 153 votes.
Conservative MP Nelly Shin won the closest riding in the country with 31.21 per cent of the vote, but NDP candidate Bonita Zarrillo was close behind with 30.93 per cent and the Liberal candidate was not far back with 29.06 per cent of ballots cast.
The riding was so close that Zarrillo initially requested a recount, which was terminated partway through and didn't change the outcome. Zarrillo, who is running again, said she believes COVID has changed how voters look at the issues and will change the outcome in the riding this time.
“People are certainly in a very different place than they were two years ago,” she said. “People are much more focused on their health, and recovering from COVID right now so I do think that the result will be different.”
Despite the three-way split last time, she believes the race is primarily between the Conservatives and the NDP.
“Although it might seem that it's a close three-way race, it's really been the NDP and the Conservative time after time after time,” she said.
Shin was not available before press time, but will be on the ballot again for the Conservatives. Will Davis, who did not run in the riding in 2019, will represent the Liberals this time out.
The riding was a battleground in 2015 as well, with the New Democrat candidate coming out on top, the Liberal in second and the Conservative in third, with thin margins.
Davis said he expects a three-way race again.
“I absolutely expect the riding to be a close race and an important race,” he said.
Davis said the riding, on the outskirts of Vancouver, is becoming more metropolitan all the time, with more people moving into the community. He said he believes people want competent management and believes the Liberals demonstrated that through the pandemic.
“People want more of the same good governance and good stories we've seen the last two years,” he said.
Davis said the close races show a community that is interested in politics and looking for candidates to listen.
“It does mean that there are engaged citizens, people that have ideas, there are needs in this community,” he said. “It's really about winning over those people that may not know who I am or what I can offer.”
After Port Moody, the closest ridings are in Richmond Hill north of Toronto, where the Liberal Majid Jowhari won with a 212-vote margin, and the riding of Quebec, where Liberal cabinet minister Jean-yves Duclos held on with a 325-vote lead.
Port Moody—coquitlam was among only eight ridings in the country where the race was settled by less than one per cent, according to an analysis of the election results done by the National Post. A further 20 ridings had margins of victory of less than three per cent and 20 more ridings were settled by less than five per cent of ballots.
Nine of the 10 closest ridings were won by Liberals in the 2019 election, meaning while they seek their majority in other ridings across the country, they will also have to watch their back to ensure they don't lose these narrowly won seats.
Of those 10 close ridings, two are in B.C., two in Ontario, three in Quebec, and one each is up for grabs in Yukon, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. Most of the ridings are close two-way races, either between the Liberals and Conservatives or the Liberals and Bloc Québécois.
The Greater Toronto Area, often a battleground for seats between all parties, is largely Liberal now, and even in an election that dealt the Liberals a minority government, there were only a few close races.
Many Liberals in the Toronto suburbs are now sitting with a winning margin of more than 30 per cent, which will make them difficult to beat. There are some close races and several Conservative MPS comfortably holding onto their seats, like Bob Saroya, the MP for Markham-unionville. But Conservative Leona Alleslev won her race in Aurora—oak Ridges—richmond Hill by only two per cent last time.
The Conservative lead in most of Alberta and Saskatchewan is more daunting. Conservative MP Damien Kurek won his riding with 85.49 per cent of the vote, giving him a margin of victory of over 80 per cent, the largest in the country.
The Liberals need 13 more seats than they had in 2019 to reach a majority, but will likely want a buffer to allow for a Liberal Speaker and for MPS to step down or resign.
The numbers suggest the best place for them to seek these seats will be west of Toronto, like Niagara, Windsor, Hamilton and Kitchener. They can also seek to take back Bloc seats in some parts of Quebec like Shefford and Trois-rivières.
B.C. is set to be a major battleground. There was a tight three-way race in Coquitlam-port Coquitlam where the Liberals won, and in South Okanagan where the NDP pulled out a victory.