A well-drilled O'toole has caught Trudeau flat-footed
Well, at least we now know what Conservative leader Erin O'toole was doing all those months when he wasn't making much of an impression in the House of Commons: working on his plan for the election. O'toole has come flying out of the gates in the current campaign.
The full Conservative platform was released early, dulling the standard Liberal attacks of a “hidden agenda.” Subsequent days on the trail have been spent setting out the planks and how they will contribute to Canada's recovery from COVID-19. We're only a few weeks in and O'toole has already outlined a well-received housing plan that will increase the supply of new homes; a month-long GST holiday to boost retail consumption; a scheme to cover 25 per cent of the salaries of new hires (and 50 per cent of the salaries of the long-term unemployed); and more money for Canada's creaking health-care system, including mental health. It might not be everyone's cup of tea, especially for fiscal conservatives, but it's not weak tea.
Most importantly, O'toole is reaching out to new audiences: the housing policy should land well with young families in places such as the GTA, where the cost of living is high and housing availability low, while his plans to protect employee pensions in the event of corporate bankruptcies and plans to protect gig economy workers by making their companies pay in CPP and EI equivalents will help him attract the working-class voters now being ignored by the progressive parties, who now prioritize identity and race over class.
Even the tone of the Tory campaign is different. There is less chippiness and anger, more empathy and forthrightness. In this sense, O'toole is certainly a different breed than either of his predecessors. He's also, however, a different breed from the “true blue” version of himself that ran in the Conservative leadership race, a fact that is contributing to an enthusiasm gap on the furthest-right reaches of his possible electoral coalition. That O'toole sounds like Ed Broadbent as often as he does Stephen Harper has no doubt left some blues confused. But O'toole has made himself competitive against Trudeau early, something that will help keep any disaffected Conservatives in the tent.
Justin Trudeau and his Liberals certainly appear to be lost in responding to O'toole and his party. The lack of organization on the Liberal campaign — some would call it improvisation — suggests Trudeau expected a coronation instead of a competition. The Liberals have already trotted out all of the usual bogeymen, abortion, hidden agenda, gun control, two-tier health care, to little effect.
The Liberal policy offer has been underwhelming, too. Trudeau has rehashed his 2019 election promise to hire more doctors and the refresh of his existing housing plan is drawing as much opprobrium as it is praise. Put differently, the Liberal leader's words about this being the most important election since 1945 are belied by his actions. Or, as the Conservative war room quipped: Mr. Trudeau appears to be “making it up as he goes along.”
But of course the Tories would say that. Worryingly for Trudeau, however, the electorate is starting to show signs that it no longer believes him when he opens his trap. They're also probably wondering why Mr. Sunny Ways has now hidden himself behind a cloud of angry chat and attacks on his opponent. The brand Trudeau has so assiduously built is at risk of being lost.
Even the way the leaders are doing their rallies — a former Trudeau strong point — is illustrative. O'toole, perhaps sensing the enthusiasm gap within his own party, is convening virtual town halls to introduce himself more broadly to some of the millions of Conservative voters who aren't party members. Trudeau, meanwhile, has satisfied himself with small whistle stop meet and greets where an angry wall of anti-vax protesters soon converge to shout at him (which, then again, might be the plan).
Speaking of plans, “a plan beats no plan,” quipped one-time U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner during the height of the 2008 financial crisis. Well, two weeks into this campaign Erin O'toole seems to have a much better plan than Justin Trudeau.