OIL AND GAS REVENUE STAGES YET ANOTHER FISCAL RESCUE

But where will the money come from when we move toward green, renewable energy?

Once again, Alberta's finances are snatched from the pit of hell by oil and gas revenues.

The UCP announced very strong economic forecasts Tuesday, far better than its earlier predictions for this year.

These new quarterly numbers forecast a deficit $10.5 billion smaller than the original estimate. The new deficit will be $7.8 billion, less than half of the original forecast.

This new bonanza is due almost entirely to oil and gas royalties pushed up by higher world prices.

I'd suggest we enjoy this latest boom. It may be the last.

We can talk endlessly about conversion away from oil and gas, and even do it with all possible speed.

This is happening right now with new investments in green energy.

Public support for this drive was limited a decade ago. Today, it's almost universal.

To be clear, I'm all for this. Climate change is no longer a theoretical crisis; it's immediate.

But there are serious questions that aren't being answered by the major political proponents of rapid energy transition, the federal Liberals and New Democrats.

And the main issue is this: Where will the money come from?

It's not just a question for Alberta, either. The Liberals and federal NDP often seem to forget that Ottawa benefits hugely from oil and gas revenues.

But Alberta's fiscal report reveals not a single entry for revenue from renewable energy sources. These nascent industries are money takers, not money makers. Even cannabis produces more public revenue ($113 million.)

Oil and gas, by contrast, are still powerful enough to make us wonder what this province will be like when they become negligible contributors to the public treasury.

The government now expects to reap nearly $10 billion this year from royalties on bitumen, crude oil and natural gas. That's triple the original estimate.

The industry is staging another Alberta fiscal rescue, and maybe even a political one for the UCP government.

But the national agenda, presented by both the Liberals and New Democrats in the current federal campaign, assumes the end is coming for oil and gas.

They hope to replace emissions with clean energy. They don't say how clean energy will replace missing money.

The Liberal government, now seeking another mandate, is already planning to shift workers out of non-renewable resource industries.

Pledging a “Just Transition,” Ottawa released in July a request for public input on how this will be done.

Never mind that employment training is mainly a provincial job. Ottawa is stepping in to plan the future for every worker in resource industries.

“Workers in the natural resource sectors helped build this country,” said Natural Resources Minister Seamus O'regan.

“These same workers will build our low-carbon future. It is their skills, determination and ingenuity that will get us to net zero and ensure our continued prosperity. They won't be left behind — they will lead the way.”

But lead the way to what, exactly? The goal is absurdly vague. Disparate shifts to renewables are expected to somehow produce energy volumes that will replace fossil fuel production.

It's very difficult to see that happening for a long time. We may someday produce enough green energy for Canada's needs, but not enough for exports.

And it's the sale of energy to other countries, mainly the

U.S., that produces much of the cash that ends up in the Alberta treasury.

Many Albertans are now onside with carbon capture, hydrogen, petrochemicals and net-zero emissions targets.

The big companies themselves are rapidly changing their goals, trying to find ways to make oil and gas fit the emerging agenda.

But every Albertan has the right to ask a reasonable question in this campaign, without being accused of climate change denial.

How, exactly, will this Just Transition replace not just oil and gas production, but the revenue that comes from it?