Five questions about Kenney's pay-for-jabs scheme

Kenney says his government has done all it can, but passports remain on the table

There are five big unanswered questions about Premier Jason Kenney's plan for the government to give $100 to unvaccinated or under-vaccinated people to get them to accept a COVID jab in the next six weeks.

1. Will this scheme work to get more folks vaccinated? Of course it will. If there's anything people love, it's free stuff. A free $100 gift card certainly qualifies.

There are unvaccinated people who are merely neglectful, or wobbling on the fence, as opposed to being convinced of the necessity of their unvaccinated status. This will nudge some of them to act.

A leading Canadian COVID expert, Dr. Isaac Bogoch of the University of Toronto, addressed on Twitter the efficacy and ethics of this $100 gift. “If this gets more people vaccinated, I'm all for it. (In addition to saving lives, this may also end up being a cost effective/cost saving initiative.)”

2. Will vaccinated Albertans support giving away this $100 carrot? Expect a mixed response. Some will be morally offended about what they see as vaccine slackers getting rewarded with a bribe. The more mercenary will be upset that they didn't get a $100 payout themselves. But I suspect many will adopt Dr. Bogoch's pragmatic approach.

3. Will this scheme work well enough to prevent our intensive care units from being overrun? Highly unlikely. Even Kenney's not sure people will be moved to get vaccinated quickly enough. As he said at Friday's announcement, “We don't know if it will work or not.”

This fourth wave has just now picked up speed. On Aug. 24, Alberta had 59 COVID patients in intensive care. By Friday, we had 118 (and of that number 91 per cent were unvaccinated).

Alberta's intensive care capacity is now at 95 per cent. There's almost no wiggle room.

Of course, one other factor might now press the unvaccinated to get jabbed. The highly contagious Delta variant is hitting the unvaccinated as hard as the virus ever has. Dr. Deena Hinshaw now tells us the risk of COVID causing hospitalization for the unvaxxed is about the same as heart disease and COPD (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) and approximating the risk of cancer admission.

If any unvaccinated person planned to let herd immunity build in everyone else through vaccination, and to ride out the pandemic unscathed themselves, they'd best re-evaluate their plan.

4. Why didn't the government bring in stricter measures? Politics. And I don't say “politics” in a bad way. Albertans are profoundly divided on how to best approach the pandemic. Some favour strict Australian-style lockdown measures. Others would prefer a more open Sweden-style approach, with lockdown measures greatly limited. That is my own preference, especially with so many of us vaccinated, but there's no denying the stress on our hospitals.

We try to smooth out our vast political differences in civil fashion through political debate, but it makes for difficult and acrimonious COVID politics. And, make no mistake, if Rachel Notley were in power our politics would be equally fractious.

5. The Kenney government is dangling a $100 carrot, but before it brings in more general lockdown restrictions on everyone, will it also use a stick? Yes, I see a vaccine passport coming soon, as early as next week. The United Conservatives have a strong freedom-loving wing, which is rightly loathe to coerce people to take vaccines. They are also acutely aware of the massive harm a government can do with shut-'er-down lockdown policies to the mental, physical and economic health of people.

There's much to be said for understanding and restraint toward the unvaccinated, especially in a moment when they are now regularly belittled by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

But a vast number of fully-vaccinated Canadians either strongly agree with Trudeau's stance, or at least are frustrated that so many unvaccinated people appear to be choosing the good of the one ahead of the good of the many.

Kenney's own frustration is also evident, as seen by his complaint on Friday about Alberta's one-in-five unvaccinated adults. “Their choices are now jeopardizing our health-care system.”

And his plea: “For the love of God, please get vaccinated now.”

When the hospital system finally cracks, I predict Kenney and the UCP will move fast on passports.

As the premier said himself on Friday, he will do all he can to avoid “at all costs” a crisis in our hospitals and a general lockdown.

That statement sounded heartfelt, but he also claimed that in his government's push for vaccinations that “we have left no stone unturned.”

That's simply not true.

Vaccine passports are the unturned stone of Alberta politics.

But not for long.