Cost to modernize Norad balloons from $10B to $40B

Insiders warn final bill could still be higher

Various news media outlets last year were reporting that Canada's cost to modernize the sensors and radars that protect North America would be anywhere between $10 billion and $14 billion.

Some newspapers cited warnings from defence sources that the price tag for Canadian taxpayers could be as high as $20 billion.

On Monday the Liberal government finally unveiled the cost as $40 billion to be spent over two decades — and there's no guarantee that figure won't go higher.

Considering delays and cost overruns that can regularly plague Canadian military equipment purchases, some defence insiders say there should be real concerns about the final tally.

After all, the cost to build a fleet of 15 new warships has climbed from the original $26 billion to what parliamentarians are now saying is $100 billion.

Defence Minister Anita Anand outlined on Monday that Canada's contributions to the modernization of the North American Aerospace Defence Command will involve space sensors, new radar and cutting-edge technology. All of it has the potential for significant cost overruns and delays.

When asked about procurement problems and how that might affect the Liberal plan, her response to the “narrative” that military procurement was broken was to highlight what she suggested were procurement successes.

She specifically mentioned the Arctic and Offshore Patrol Ships, the ongoing F-35 fighter jet negotiations, and the 40 or so drone cameras that Canada bought for Ukraine.

Those, however, might not be the best examples to convince the public the $40 billion Norad modernization scheme won't go off the rails.

The delivery of the Arctic patrol ships was seven years behind schedule, with the original cost going from $2.6 billion to $4.3 billion.

In 2015 Justin Trudeau promised his government would never purchase the F-35 because the jet didn't work. Now Trudeau's government is spending up to $ 19 billion on the stealth fighters but they won't all arrive until 2031.

As for the drone cameras, the deal involved a small number of sensors, some already in production. And there was no competition for the deal so the procurement could be pushed through quickly. Building spacecraft, new radars and sensor systems — portions of which still have to be developed — will be a bit more challenging than just placing an order for drone cameras already in production.

Anand says the Norad modernization is essential to protect Canadians from cruise missiles and new hypersonic missiles being developed by Russia and China.

For the last two years, Canadian generals and academics closely aligned with National Defence and the military lobby, have been talking up the threat of hypersonic missiles.

In March 2021 Royal Military College professor Christian Leuprecht painted a nightmare scenario for CTV News in which the Russians fire a hypersonic missile at Canada to disable part of this country's power grid, which in turn, would significantly harm the U.S. electrical power system.

There are a few things wrong with this scenario.

If the Russians did launch a hypersonic missile at Canada to disable the U.S. power grid, then that would be the opening salvo of the Third World War.

And upgraded Norad radars might be of little use as the U.S. retaliates with a nuclear salvo and the Russians counterattack with their own.

Defence insiders also point out the main problem with Leuprecht's scenario as well as similar warnings about hypersonic missiles. Russian or Chinese hackers could easily disable North America's power grid using a cyberattack, which conceivably would be hard to trace back to a particular nation.

Hypersonic missiles may sound deadly but the more effective threat to a nation comes from the cyber realm.

Anand said at her Monday news conference that she understands how Canadians might question spending $40 billion on Norad.

But she claimed the massive amount of funding will create tens of thousands of Canadian jobs, although she presented no evidence to back that up.

HYPERSONIC MISSILES MAY SOUND DEADLY BUT THE MORE EFFECTIVE THREAT COMES FROM THE CYBER REALM.