Will there be an early vote?

Even though the next vote is still likely some months away, election speculation is already in full swing.

The province’s fixed election law calls for election day to be the fourth Monday in October every four years. It was passed by the Robert Ghiz government in 2008 and the 2011 election followed that timeline. Premier Wade MacLauchlan ignored the law when he sought his first mandate and there is a good chance it will happen again.

The premier used the excuse there were four new party leaders all outside the rail when he called the 2015 election for May rather than following the October schedule. That means the government would be in office for over four years if the October timetable were to be followed.

There is also a requirement in the Act that would see the election moved to the spring of 2020 in the event of a federal election. The current date projected under the federal fixed election law is October 21, 2019. It is highly unlikely the Liberals would wait close to the maximum five-year mark unless they took a drastic dive in the polls and tried to delay the inevitable.

That leaves two likely choices - this fall or next spring. The recent cabinet shuffle has led many political watchers to speculate this could actually be an election year. The changes resulted from the fact two veteran cabinet ministers - Alan McIsaac (agriculture and fisheries) and Allen Roach (finance) told the premier their names wouldn’t be on the ballot next time.

Many premiers in the past have dropped veteran cabinet ministers in the lead-up to a vote to bring some new blood to the table. The shuffle resulted in the return of the dean of the legislature - Charlottetown-Victoria Park MLA Richard Brown - back into the inner circle. Summerside-Wilmot MLA Chris Palmer is also at the table as economic development and tourism minister, giving the city two cabinet seats.

The new cabinet stops at the Hillsborough Bridge. Unfortunately for the premier, McIsaac and Roach have the only two seats east of Charlottetown so he couldn’t replace them. The premier dropped the justice portfolio from his responsibilities, saying it will give him time to pay attention to the eastern part of the Island and both the retiring eastern MLA have pledged they will fight for the area form the backbench until the next vote.

A referendum on electoral reform will also be held in conjunction with the next vote with Islanders being asked to choose between two possible electoral systems - one of them being mixed member proportional representation. That was the top option in a 2016 plebiscite but the premier rejected the results saying the voter turnout was too low. Now MacLauchlan has asked the Electoral Boundaries Commission to draw up a map showing the boundaries under a mixed member system by early April and a coalition that intends to promote the option to Islanders has already started its work, saying they expect an early election.

If that speculation continues to gather steam, expect more partisan posturing when the legislature reconvenes in April.