‘Northern populism’ among 30 per cent: poll
Fewer than half of Canadians hold optimistic, open view of the world
Canada’s reputation as a nation with an open and optimistic world view that flies in the face of rising pessimism and nationalism elsewhere is being challenged by new research suggesting many Canadians hold views acutely in line with some of those darker forces. Fewer than half of Canadians appear on the “open’’ side of a index devised by EKOS Research and The Canadian Press to gauge populist sentiment here, and the remainder either have a closed-off view of the world or are on the fence — a potentially volatile swing group. The research aggregated polls involving 12,604 people to explore to what extent Canadians’ views are in line with voters who backed two of the most surprising manifestations of 21st century populism in recent years — Donald Trump’s campaign for U.S. president and the exit of Britain from the European Union.
Both were understood to be the results of rising discontent among those sideswiped by technological, cultural and economic transformation and seeking to regain some measure of control by eschewing the political status quo in favour of a dramatic new approach. Whether Canada could be facing a similar issue has been a question ever since.
The results of the study suggest 46 per cent of Canadians are open-minded towards the world and each other, with the highest numbers found in B.C. and the Atlantic provinces.
But 30 per cent report feeling economically and culturally insecure, a sentiment found in the largest numbers in Alberta and Saskatchewan. The remainder — roughly 25 per cent — have a mixed view.
To gauge where Canadians sit, EKOS Research and The Canadian Press aggregated responses to questions posed in two telephone polls between June and December about people’s perceptions of their economic outlook, class mobility, ethnic fluency and tolerance. Pollsters also asked whether they believed such movements were good or not.
The results were in turn plotted on a spectrum from “open’’ to “ordered’’ — a new way of classifying people’s political viewpoints that goes beyond the traditional right-versus-left. The old partisan markers are driven by fiscal and social philosophies and are less a part of today’s political debate that broader opinions about how the world should be run, said EKOS President Frank Graves.
“The left-right has mutated under these pressures into this ‘ordered-open’ and it brings along some of the traditional left-right, but it brings along a lot of new divisions,’’ Graves said.
“The questions now are: Do you want to pull up the drawbridge? What do you think about people who don’t have the same skin colour as you? What do you think about the importance of tolerating dissent or having a more-ordered versus a more-chaotic or creative society?’’
The telephone polls had a margin of error of 0.9 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
OPEN: The Atlantic region The research reveals the complex nature of what EKOS has called “northern populism.’ For example, 50 per cent of those surveyed in the Atlantic region hold an “open’’ view. That means they feel positive about their economic future and class mobility and have a perception of the ethnic make-up of the country that most closely mirrors reality. They’re also the least likely to view populism as a positive force.
Yet, in the Atlantic, the population is older, less diverse and somewhat less educated that other regions.
Those are all factors understood to underpin a more closed-minded view of the world: supporters of Britain’s exit from the E.U. were more likely to have lower incomes than those who voted to stay, and lower levels of education as well.
Graves pointed out that the region’s dependence on immigration to sustain its fiscal future likely influences the rankings there, and also a coastal culture that literally provides a more open view of the world.