Canada’s June numbers surprisingly strong despite U.S. tariffs on metals

Surging exports led by higherpriced energy products allowed Canada to shrug off new U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs in June to post the lowest monthly merchandise trade deficit with the world in 17 months. The difference between Canada’s exports and imports narrowed from a negative $2.7 billion in May to $626 million in June, the smallest deficit since January 2017, fuelled by an increase in the value of total exports of 4.1 per cent while imports edged down 0.2 per cent, Statistics Canada reported Friday. Analysts had expected a trade deficit of $2.3 billion, according to a poll by Thomson Reuters Eikon. In volume terms, exports rose 2.1 per cent and imports were down 1.3 per cent. “We thought steel and aluminum tariffs would be the story of this morning’s trade report, but strong export growth in most other sectors swamped the impact of those new duties,” said Josh Nye, senior economist at RBC Economics Research. Benjamin Reitzes, Canadian rates and macro strategist with BMO Capital Markets, pointed out in a note that Canada’s metal product exports fell 1.1 per cent in June versus May, “hardly a huge move,” adding steel exports were off 14.3 per cent compared with June 2017 and aluminum shipments rose 10.2 per cent. “Consistent with supply dynamics, the impact looks to be larger on steel than aluminum, but in the broader scheme of things, the impact thus far appears to be minimal,” he said. Statistics Canada noted that, on an unadjusted basis, exports of steel products to the U.S. that were subject to a 25 per cent tariff fell 36.8 per cent in June after unusual gains of 40 per cent from February to May. Exports of aluminum to the U.S. that were subject to a 10 per cent tariff were down seven per cent in June, following gains of 28.5 per cent from February to May. The trade surprise, when added to robust gross domestic product growth in May and June’s six-year-high inflation number, adds to the likelihood that the Bank of Canada will increase interest rates this fall, economists agreed. “Heading into today’s number, June was expected to be a soft month for the Canadian economy, coming off a roaring gain in May and feeling the drag of oil production shutdowns in June,” said CIBC economist Royce Mendes in a report.