N.B. election puzzle leaves Liberals on life support

The people of New Brunswick have spoken. But what, exactly, have they said? Monday’s election produced results of exquisite complexity. Premier Brian Gallant and the Liberals decisively won the popular vote with 37.8 per cent. But they won only 21 seats in the 49-seat legislature, leaving them well short of a majority. The Liberals piled up huge numbers in some of the ridings they won, mostly in francophone-dominant north and east. But their vote was inefficient; many votes produced proportionally fewer wins. The Progressive Conservatives, under Blaine Higgs, captured 22 seats but only 31.9 per cent of the vote, efficiently producing more seats with fewer votes. But this leaves no party with a mandate to govern on its own. In effect, New Brunswickers have voted for “all of the above.” The election was extraordinary in other ways, too. It produced the first minority government in New Brunswick since 1920. It elected 11 women, a record high. At 67 per cent, turnout was the second lowest ever. More significantly, emerging parties will have an outsized impact on the new legislative assembly. With only 12 per cent of the vote each, they hold the balance of power. The Greens re-elected their popular leader, David Coon, and two other MLAs. The People’s Alliance Party, led by Kris Austen, went from zero to three seats. New Democratic Party support collapsed to five per cent and no seats. Gallant visited Lt.-Gov. Jocelyn Roy-Vienneau Tuesday morning and said he had obtained viceregal consent to face the legislature in a new session. “The Liberals are still the government and I am still the premier,” until the Liberals lose the confidence of the House, he said. That’s true, but the math works against him. Just winning over the Greens or the Alliance Gallant will still leave the Liberals one short of 25 seats. He needs four votes, from somewhere, if his government is to survive. Gallant pointed out that Prime Minister Stephen Harper and the Conservatives governed as a minority for several years without an entente with another party in Parliament. He plans to try something similar. Higgs is not in power, but in a strong political situation nevertheless. He only needs support from one of the smaller parties for a majority of votes in the legislature and command of the agenda. The Tories also have a natural affinity with the People’s Alliance, social conservatives who want to change how New Brunswick provides services in both official languages. Higgs is a former member of the anti-bilingualism Confederation of Regions party. The Tory leader said Monday that New Brunswickers want the parties to work together and the PCs will try to make minority government work. But his caucus is in a position to frustrate much of the Liberal program if it chooses. Higgs only needs a little help from the Greens or the Alliance on any matter of confidence to sink the Grits. For now, Gallant is dealing from the premier’s office, but Higgs holds most of the cards. How he plays those cards will have a big impact on the next election, which might not be far down the road.