CHINA AND CANADA ENTER ‘GOLDEN AGE’
Climate change, free-trade talks part of agenda
IF THEY HAD BEEN THERE SIX MONTHS BEFORE, THE MEETINGS ... WOULD’VE BEEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL.
With Premier Li Keqiang lauding the launch of a “golden decade” of Canada-China relations during a visit to Ottawa and Montreal this week — on the heels of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s trip to China three weeks ago — the Liberal government is sowing seeds for a friendlier relationship with the world’s second-biggest economy.
By all accounts, this is just a start. After a series of modest but symbolic announcements, including commercial deals, Canada’s decision to join the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and “exploratory” free-trade talks, the stage has been set for behind-thescenes work to ramp up.
Trudeau’s political opponents are accusing him of getting too close — and looking it. An Instagram shot Wednesday showed Trudeau and Li sitting on Adirondack chairs, drinking beer. Many are urging caution on trade and extradition deals.
In 2015, Canada exported $20.2 billion in goods to China and imported $65.6 billion. A new promise is to double two-way trade by 2026.
But instead of improving Canada’s export share, this will “only accentuate the already large trade imbalance we have with China,” said Carleton University’s Meredith Lilly, a former Stephen Harper adviser.
Trade talks could be positive “if it is with the eventual goal of negotiating with China as part of a broader multilateral deal such as the (Trans-Pacific Partnership).”
The fate of the TPP is in doubt, and bilateral trade negotiations would take years — China wants investment by state-owned enterprises. It also wants energy pipelines to the B.C. coast.
Canada, meanwhile, is seeking fewer non-tariff barriers, including arbitrary irritants such as the recently proposed restrictions on canola.
In the meantime, a focus on climate change, investment and people-to-people ties will continue. Business partnerships, such as a joint venture between SNC-Lavalin and China’s nuclear sector, will be encouraged. Formal co-operation on carbon pricing schemes is rumoured to be in the future.
Trudeau and Li have promised a yearly dialogue. At home, top federal bureaucrats are now holding regular meetings to work together on China, something they weren’t doing before.
“Committees are being set up here in Ottawa,” said Paul Evans of the University of British Columbia who was in Ottawa for Li’s visit.
“If they had been there six months before, the meetings in Beijing and Shanghai and this one here would’ve been more substantial.”
Both countries’ ambassadors are being replaced, so foreign policy observers are watching to see who will lead the diplomatic charge.
At the top of the domestic agenda will be determining how an economic agreement with China can best benefit Canada — and possibly how it can benefit efforts to combat climate change.
There is also the question of selling the idea of friendship with China to Canadians.
The news that Canada will begin discussing an extradition treaty with China — giving the appearance of a quid pro quo for the recent return of imprisoned Canadian Kevin Garratt — raises concerns about torture and capital punishment. The shape of any agreement is unknown, though Trudeau has promised “extremely high” standards.
If he can’t get Canadians on side with trade and extradition deals, there’s a worry that China will see Canada as “not fulfilling our side,” said Charles Burton of Brock University.
“If (Canada is) unable to follow through on what the Chinese thought they were getting from us, that would affect future relations rather negatively.”
Evans noted Canadians can’t “hold our breath until China tries to behave more like us” — there’s a “middle ground.”
Conservatives and New Democrats want Trudeau to speak out more on human rights and international security.
Hélène Laverdière, the NDP foreign affairs critic, said Canada should “engage China as much as possible on global issues,” including the situation in Syria, the South China Sea and North Korea.
Canada and China committed to a “high-level national security and rule of law dialogue,” but this month’s meetings were short on discussions of international security.
Evans believes Trudeau will articulate a broader foreign strategy. But Canada is still in the U.S.’s orbit. With U.S. politicians differing wildly on whether to engage with China or try to contain its influence, a more-strategic, less-reactive foreign policy from Trudeau might have to wait until after the U.S. presidential election.
“Where’s Mr. Trudeau going to go?” he asked. “How can he go anywhere before November?”