Crop forecast increased to 34.2M tonnes

Statistics Canada report says wheat and barley are leading the way

Saskatchewan farmers could harvest 34.2 million tonnes of crops in 2016 — slightly higher than the 33.6 million tonnes forecast in August — which would make this year’s crop the second-largest on record, according to the latest crop production forecast from Statistics Canada.

The production of spring wheat and barley in Canada is estimated to be higher in 2016 than in 2015, production of canola is expected to be relatively unchanged from last year, while oat production expected to decline, the federal agency said this week.

“At the national level, spring wheat production is estimated to be 20.6 million tonnes in 2016, up 3.9 per cent from 2015, mainly as a result of a higher estimated average yield across the Prairies.” The average yield is projected to be 50 bushels per acre, up 13.4 per cent from 44 bushels per acre in 2015, but harvested acreage has declined 8.3 per cent from 2015.

Spring wheat production is expected to increase in Alberta by 13.5 per cent and Manitoba by 2.6 per cent in 2016, but to decrease in Saskatchewan by 2.8 per cent. Production of spring wheat in Saskatchewan is expected to be 7.9 million tonnes, compared with 8.2 million tonnes in 2015.

“Average (spring wheat) yield in Saskatchewan is anticipated to be up 10.6 per cent compared with 2015 to 43.3 bushels per acre. However, an anticipated decline of 12.1 per cent in harvested area is expected to offset the higher yield anticipated in 2016.”

Durum wheat production nationally is expected to be 7.3 million tonnes in 2016, up 36 per cent from 2015, due to a 4.4 per cent gain in acreage, combined with a 30 per cent rise in yield to 45 bushels per acre. In Saskatchewan, durum production is projected to be 5.4 million tonnes versus 4.6 million tonnes in 2015.

In Saskatchewan, total wheat production, including durum, is expected to be 13.7 million tonnes, up from 13.0 million tonnes in 2015.

Across Canada, canola production is estimated to be 18.3 million tonnes in 2016, the same level as in 2015, due to an expected increase in average yield combined with an anticipated decline in harvested acreage. Estimated average yield for 2016 is up 4.2 per cent from 2015 to a record 41.1 bushels per acre. However, harvested acreage is expected to be down 4.0 per cent to 19.6 million acres in 2016.

In Saskatchewan, canola production is projected to be 8.9 million tonnes in 2016, down from 9.5 million tonnes last year.