Humans, energy and climate change

Currently our global way of life is dumping millions of tons of greenhouse gases (GHGs) into our atmosphere and oceans daily. Science has told us that there is an effect, but we are struggling to define the level of impact on the future climate.

Supporters and deniers of significant impact only believe their conclusions. They are not based in convincing data. So if one wants to make a statement, one should start by stating one's belief. This will make conversation easier. Because it is a belief, there is no sense in trying to convert anybody.

There are only three attitude options of the impact of fossil fuels (GHGs) on climate change: yes or no or “do not know.” If the answer is no, then life goes on as is and we assume that all GHGs are absorbed by photosynthesis and oceans without harmful effect. End of conversation.

If the answer is yes, then the nature and extent of the corrective action needs to be addressed, because of the impact on oceans (temperature, sea levels, acidity), major weather events, food production and species extinction. The consequences of climate change then dominate all corrective actions: • Type of energy • Efficiency of energy use • Demand of energy • Cost of energy • Standard of living If the answer of the impact of fossil fuels on climate change is “do not know,” then the conversation about good and bad data goes on and on. “Do not know” in the absence of serious environmental events will not unite us to take action. However, “do not know” in the presence of serious environmental events may indeed make us feel to take united action, just in case. The personal answer is influenced by the level of risk one is inclined to accept.

Eventually, we have to collectively say yes or no to a significant impact of GHGs on climate change. How are we going to agree on this global issue? Only the science process can give us any confidence in the answer. However, the large number of variables and their nonlinear relationship makes the definition of impact on climate very complex. A definitive answer will require many more data points over time and more computer capacity. This may take decades.

By the time we all agree and the answer is yes, it may be too late to do something about it, because many GHGs linger in the atmosphere for decades. The Paris Agreement of December 2015 was a big step towards “yes.”

Klaus Jericho

Lethbridge