Back to Afghan conflict?

EDITORIAL: WHAT OTHERS THINK How will Trump’s reversal on Afghanistan affect Canada?

Reaction to Donald Trump’s latest about-face — this time on the U.S. war in Afghanistan — has been quick and predictable. A sizeable portion of his hard-right support base is mad as hell. Trump promised isolationism, just like he promised a Mexican border wall. Now that he’s ensconced in the Oval Office, he’s made no progress on the wall and instead of retrenching he will continue to preside over the longest war in his country’s history.

Average Americans, who are probably not Trump fans given his abysmal approval ratings, are weary of fighting a war they don’t appear to be making significant progress on winning.

But really, what could anyone have reasonably expected? His generals have warned that if the U.S. and its allies pull out, the ensuing power vacuum will quickly be filled with the wrong kind of people. The Taliban. ISIS/Daesh. AlQaida. This isn’t hyperbole. Look what happened in Iraq, where the U.S. toppled a despotic regime, pulled out and watched the country literally fall into failed state status.

Trump’s Afghanistan awakening — he had pledged repeatedly to pull out — was much like most of his major pronouncements. Long on bluster and bombast, short on details. He promised to win but the current reality has seen the deaths of more than 2,300 U.S. soldiers along with 30,000 Afghan military and police personnel and 31,000 civilians. And this without a hint of a pending victory. From a military perspective, America and its allies are, at best, treading water in Afghanistan.

So what is the end game? Probably to hang on long enough for the Taliban to agree to negotiate some Afghanistan solution. In other words, America may just have signed up for 16 more years of indecisive war.

Where does Canada fit in? As recently as June Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said a return of Canadian personnel to Afghanistan wasn’t in the cards. But Trump is making it clear he will be asking his NATO allies to do more. When the ask comes, will Canada be able to refuse? Even with the government’s pledge to spend $62 billion more on armed services in the next two decades, we will only spend 1.4 per cent of GDP on the military — nowhere close to the NATO defence spending target of two per cent.

Trudeau has said what matters is the quality, not just the size, of Canada’s military contribution. It’s a reasonable point considering the country’s previous Afghan contribution of 3,000 troops for five years in Kandahar province was, according to American military brass, invaluable. But that contribution came at a dear price — hundreds of dead and thousands wounded. Are we really ready for that? Perhaps a support and training role for Canadian troops will be more palatable. Ultimately, it’s going to be tough for Trudeau to continue to say no.

An editorial from the Hamilton Spectator (distributed by The Canadian Press)