CSIS says ‘mega trends’ on its radar
From cryptocurrencies, to artificial intelligence, to the rise of millennials, a topsecret document by Canada’s spy agency explores the so-called “mega trends” on its radar and details how they will transform the economy, society and security.
The evolution of these trends — set to play out over the next five to 15 years — will unlock new opportunities and new threats, said the recently released document prepared for Michel Coulombe, who was director of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service at the time.
The draft discussion paper was created ahead of Coulombe’s participation at a November 2016 deputy ministers’ committee meeting on national security.
In the briefing, CSIS officials shared their insights on cyber security and privacy, the economy’s evolution toward knowledge-based sectors, the arrival of blockchain and cryptocurrencies, artificial intelligence, the emergence of the millennial generation, encryption and the advance of quantum technologies.
“Each of these trends bring promise and challenge,” said the paper, which was labelled “top secret.”
“The rate and impact of technological advances and interactions are often misunderstood or underestimated. Organizations — faced with time, money and people constraints — will struggle to make effective planning and investment decisions.”
It warned that significant and sustained leadership, innovation, partnerships and investments will be necessary to deal with the complexity and accelerated pace of these changes.
A take-home message of the document is that policy-makers must figure out how much they really know about these disruptive technologies, their potential national-security risks and how to ensure Canada stays secure and prosperous.
The briefing was obtained by The Canadian Press under the Access to Information Act.
A few areas highlighted on the CSIS list have already attracted some commitments from the federal government, while Ottawa insists others, such as the expected job-killing disruptions of technological change, remain a key focus as it prepares its spring budget.
Finance Minister Bill Morneau has said his upcoming budget will have core themes that include finding ways for science to help the economy over the long haul and preparing workers for the rapidly changing job market from advances like automation.
A recent report by Morneau’s economic growth council recommended Ottawa introduce new measures to help Canadians acquire new skills to prepare for the labourmarket impacts of new technologies.
Among the group’s suggestions, it argued that Canada urgently needs another $15 billion in annual investments by 2030 for adult skills development to help workers adjust to the coming changes.
The CSIS document also warned that, as the world’s knowledge-based sectors evolve, we should expect increasingly fierce competition as states, organizations and individuals target new expertise and intellectual property belonging to others. It called this information, which would mostly exist in electronic format, a “highly valuable commodity” that will need protection from cyber attacks.
The federal government is planning to release a national IP strategy in the coming months. In last year’s budget, Ottawa said the strategy would promote the development of new ideas and technologies by helping ensure companies, academics and inventors reap benefits from their investments.