Conservatives on the rise in the south: poll

But a lot can change before next provincial election

In the last provincial election, many Lethbridge voters abandoned the provincial Conservatives. For the first time, they elected New Democratic Party candidates in both of the city’s ridings.

But now, with little more than a year until the next provincial campaign, electors seem ready to embrace the Conservative way once again.

In the Lethbridge West constituency, the latest Citizen Society Research Lab study shows the United Conservative Party has the support of 41.8 per cent of those who responded, with the NDP second with 20.4 per cent — while 15.7 per cent remain undecided.

In Lethbridge East, the UPC received verbal support from 45.1 per cent of those polled, with 19.6 per cent favouring the New Democrats, 12.6 per cent the Liberals and with 12.6 per cent undecided.

But political scientist Faron Ellis warns polling numbers more than a year ahead of a scheduled election carry no guarantee.

“Caution must be exercised in using this year’s numbers to predict local contests that do not yet have candidates in place, and that are still more than a year in the future,” he says.

“Although the Lethbridge patterns of support are consistent with recent province-wide polls that suggest the governing NDP has lost support across the province compared to what it garnered with its historic election victory in 2015, many provincial variables are still unknown, such as the party policies and platforms.”

What happens in the coming year, including economic and political pressures, he says, will also be in play.

“Local factors such as incumbency, local organizational strength and the amount of resources offered to the local campaigns by the provincial parties” must also be considered, Ellis says.

The latest figures, based on telephone interviews in February, show the NDP has posted modest gains in both ridings — compared to results of the same survey in February 2015, months before the election.

But in 2015, the Progressive Conservatives polled at 28.8 per cent (vs. 18.7 per cent for the NDP) in Lethbridge West while the Wildrose had 10.7 per cent.

In Lethbridge East, the 2015 pre-election poll showed the Conservatives had support from 33.2 per cent of those polled, the Liberals had 16.3 while Wildrose garnered 10.5 per cent.

Yet the New Democrats, who polled just 18.2 per cent months before the vote, won both that riding and Lethbridge West.

Liberals now receive 9.6 per cent support in Lethbridge West, the study shows, and 12.6 per cent in East — at one time, a Liberal stronghold. The Alberta Party trails with 4.7 per cent support in West, 3.8 per cent in East.

Turning to federal politics, the Citizen Society found the federal Conservatives far ahead, as usual. At more than 51 per cent, Ellis noted, its support in the Lethbridge constituency is more than double the results found for the governing Liberals, 22.6 per cent.

The NDP and Green parties trail with 6.7 and 4.2 per cent respectively. But 10.2 per cent of those who responded said they’re undecided how they’d vote.

“The Conservatives hold leads in every demographic category and receive their strongest support from within their traditional areas of strength such as men, middle and upper income voters,” Ellis says.

The twice-yearly poll, supervised by Ellis at Lethbridge College, contacted 1,228 randomly selected Lethbridge residents, 18 and older, by cellphone or landline. It’s considered accurate within 2.7 percentage points plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

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