UCP would be favoured in election: study

CITIZEN SOCIETY RESEARCH LAB SAYS NDP GAINING GROUND

In politics, a lot can change over seven months. But Albertans would see a United Conservative Party majority government if they went to the polls today.

That’s the indication from the latest province-wide study by the Citizen Society Research Lab at Lethbridge College. The United Conservative Party has dropped seven points in public popularity over the last year, however, while the New Democrats have picked up five.

“It is tightening up,” says political scientist Faron Ellis. “A lot will depend on the campaign, the leaders and external factors.”

With 48.6 per cent of decided voters’ support, the recently merged UCP appears to have the support of most Albertans — except in Edmonton — with a provincial election due next May.

The early-October study shows the governing New Democrats are supported by 24.8 per cent of decided voters, followed by the Liberals at 11.3 per cent and the Alberta Party at 8.4 per cent. But nearly 10 per cent of those contacted said they did not know how they’d vote, the results show.

Leader Jason Kenney and his UCP colleagues have been dropping in popularity since the “post-merger euphoria,” Ellis says. “The NDP is narrowing the gap.” It shows strength in Edmonton, Lethbridge and other mid-sized cities, he notes.

Still, “the UCP holds substantial leads in every region of the province except Edmonton,” including 51.8 per cent in Calgary.

And it holds that lead with almost all demographic groups, Ellis adds.

But “with at least six months remaining before the next general election, much can change,” Ellis cautions.

Last time, he observes, few Albertans believed a party with just four MLAs could possibly rise to form a majority government.

Voters will be influenced by “the public’s perception of the new UCP, its leader and candidates.

“And it’s still a pretty embryonic policy platform.”

If construction begins on the longdelayed TransMountain pipeline, that could become a big factor with how Albertans vote, he notes.

“But for now, the UCP is riding a wave of popularity that would see it replace the NDP with a majority government.”

Conducted earlier this month, the Citizen Society Research Lab study recorded the opinions of 1,364 adult Albertas in all parts of the province. The weighted sample is believed to be accurate within 2.65 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

Follow @DMabellHerald on Twitter