Trump tactics paid off, say local political scientists

Campaign appearances make an impact. And Donald Trump knows how to make them work.

Those are two lessons to be learned from Tuesday’s midterm U.S. elections, a Lethbridge observer says.

Meanwhile for Canada, two political scientists say, the new trade agreement may face further delays with the Democrats regaining control of the House of Representatives.

By carrying his campaign across the U.S. in recent weeks, says Faron Ellis, President Trump managed to significantly trim the Democrats’ expected gains.

“Love him or hate him, and love or hate his campaign tactics, there is no doubt that Trump effectively motivates his base to get out and vote,” says Ellis, political science instructor at Lethbridge College.

At the same time, they also provide “strong motivation for his opponents to get out and vote against him.”

Tuesday’s results, Ellis says, also show how divided the U.S. has become.

“I don’t think any more so than before Trump got elected,” he says. “He’s a symptom of the divisions, not the originator.”

The outcome, says University of Lethbridge political science professor Geoffrey Hale, was not particularly surprising.

“For Canada, this is going to be a very interesting and challenging two years,” until the next presidential election.

Hale, a Canada-U.S. relations researcher in the U of L political science faculty, says one of the challenges will be getting the recent Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade deal ratified. It’s not expected to come to a vote in the now-Democrat ruled House until spring.

And that, Hale says, depends on how well Trump gets along with the Democrat majority on the initiatives it wants to take.

“If Trump is not willing to pay the price, he won’t get the trade deal.”

Now that there’s a tentative trade agreement in place, Hale says, it’s not open for further amendment. “It’s an ‘up and down’ vote.” Canadian officials and politicians will need to keep their distance from those proceedings, Hale warns.

“We need to be careful not to get in the middle of partisan fights.”

But Canada continues to press for cancellation of Trump’s tariffs on aluminum and steel. And, as Ellis points out, many Democrats support protection for labour in their states.

They’re “not necessarily opposed to tariffs such as those on steel and aluminum.”

But others represent states that benefit from the free cross-border flow of components and materials involved in the highly integrated auto industry. “We’ll have to wait and see how much they want to fight with or cooperate with Trump and the Senate on the trade agenda.”

But Democrats in the House won’t advance their cause through excessive disruption, Ellis suggests.

“I don’t think they’ll threaten the U.S.-Mexico-Canada agreement too much,” he says.

That could run “far too great a political risk to hand Trump the trade file as a 2020 election issue.”

While many will grow weary of the Americans’ continuous political wrangling, Hale predicts there will be plenty for “political junkies” to debate over the next few years.

Says Hale, “The election for 2020 started last night.”