Wildfire risk predicted to be high this summer

A majority of forests in Canada face a higher-than-normal wildfire risk this summer, say federal scientists.

The forecast map from Natural Resources Canada suggests every region west of central Quebec will face an above-average hazard.

“We’re starting to see indication of above-normal potential starting in June and carrying on through the summer,” Richard Carr of the Canadian Forest Service said Tuesday.

The risk looks highest in the West. By June, all regions west of Ontario and as far north as the tree line are expected to be at well above the average risk for potential wildfires.

That’s expected to abate somewhat over the course of the summer for the southern prairies. But the hazard will remain elevated for most of the country well into September.

The maps only show risk, Carr said. “It doesn’t mean we’ll get those fires.”

The forecasts are based on predictions from climate models, which suggest a warmer and drier summer is on its way. Warm, dry and windy weather generally leads to more fires.

“If we have warmer-thannormal temperatures and less precipitation, then we get dry conditions and might get large and intense fires,” said Carr.

That’s a big if, said wildfire scientist Mike Flannigan of the University of Alberta.

Predicting weather months in advance, then trying to correlate that with how it might affect conditions in a forest is a difficult game at best, he said.

“Seasonal forecasting you have to take with a lot of salt. Not a grain of salt, but a lot of salt.”

He points out that while such forecasts look at general trends, it’s not general trends that cause large, destructive fires.