PBO costs basic income as calls for it grow

Providing almost all Canadians with a basic income for six months beginning this fall could cost about $98 billion, the parliamentary budget officer said in a report on the eve of a preview of how COVID-19 will shape government spending until next spring.

The figure is the upper range of the scenarios the budget watchdog was asked to research as part of a report released Tuesday morning as policy-makers consider how to shape emergency supports set to expire in the fall.

Planned federal spending to date on pandemic-related aid now tops about $174 billion, in a range of programs meant to provide a financial floor for individuals and businesses.

The idea of giving a government-guaranteed basic income to Canadians has gained steam as millions have watched their jobs or earnings evaporate in the COVID-19 pandemic.

Finance Minister Bill Morneau and other senior cabinet ministers have repeatedly been asked by senators and MPs about the concept. Advocates argue that it would be an expansion of the $80-billion Canada Emergency Response Benefit for workers who saw their incomes crash.

The CERB and a $45-billion wage-subsidy program are set to expire in October.

Providing six months of a basic income starting that month could cost between $47.5 billion and $98.1 billion, depending on how much of the benefit is clawed back from people whose other incomes increase.

Budget officer Yves Giroux’s report says the average benefit to Canadians aged 18 to 64 would range between $4,500 and $4,800, with the number of recipients depending on the phase-out rate.

A basic income means different things to different people, but it is usually viewed as a no-stringsattached benefit that governments provide to citizens instead of various targeted social benefits.

Also known as a guaranteed minimum income, it can be delivered as a universal payment, or as a means-tested benefit that declines as a recipient’s other income rises.