Macron offers France a Eurofriendly option
The Donald Trump formula — blame it all on immigrants and foreigners — is not working for French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen. The National Front leader placed a close second last Sunday in the first round of the French election.
Pollsters give her no chance, however, of beating the first-round winner, Euro-friendly centrist Emmanuel Macron, in the May 7 presidential run-off.
A similar anti-foreigner appeal fell flat in the Netherlands general election on March 15. Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom, which wanted to shut mosques in the Netherlands and pull the country out of the European Union, increased its vote but fell far short of unseating the centrist, Euro-friendly government.
French and Dutch voters had the benefit of watching Mr. Trump’s first months in power in Washington. They also were able to watch the efforts of U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May to withdraw her country from the European Union and regain national control over immigration. Neither Mr. Trump nor Mrs. May has actually achieved much yet beyond resounding declarations. Dutch and — it would seem — French voters decided they aren’t going down that road.
When the U.K. voted in June to quit the European Union and then Mr. Trump won the November presidential election, it seemed as though some kind of parade was forming — a parade away from globalization, freer trade and open borders. The industrial countries had, for the previous 30 years and more, been marching toward those goals. At this moment, however, the anti-global parade consists of just two floats, the U.S. and the U.K. — and they haven’t moved yet. Mrs. May hasn’t started negotiating divorce terms. Mr. Trump still sometimes rails against his country’s trade treaty with Canada and Mexico, but he has yet to take the first steps toward changing it.
What Mr. Macron would do as French president remains a mystery. He has no band of followers in the National Assembly to ratify his measures. He has little chance to recruit candidates and mount a campaign before the mid-June legislative elections. Labour market reforms he attempted during a brief stint as Economy Minister for Socialist president Francois Hollande were dropped on account of opposition within the ruling socialist party. He might lower corporate taxes and help employers to lengthen the work week, but these things are not easily achieved in France. Mr. Macron is neither a socialist nor a communist, which gave him an advantage over two of the candidates he defeated on Sunday. He has not been accused of embezzlement, which put him ahead of the Republican candidate. Like Barack Obama in the 2008 U.S. election, he offered the vague promise of change so that any voter could write their own hopes on the blank slate that was offered. He is articulate, brainy and presentable and comes with virtually no political baggage.
The main thing French voters knew was that he is not Marine Le Pen and he is not going to cut them off from the European common currency and the institutions of the European Union. He shows no sign of xenophobia and no inclination to whip up anger, fear, hatred or mutual suspicion among the people of France. His success shows that the Trump formula is not the only way to power in the industrial democracies these days.
(This editorial appeared in the Winnipeg Free Press April 25 and was circulated by The Canadian Press.)
Like Barack Obama in the 2008 U.S. election, he offered the vague promise of change so that any voter could write their own hopes on the blank slate that was offered.