Trump looking like a lame duck

Now that the ruling Republicans in Washington, D.C. have tried and failed to repeal the health insurance reforms of the previous Democratic administration, Canadians are left to wonder what to expect next from a rudderless republic. How can Canada deal with the United States when nobody, apparently, is in charge?

U.S. President Donald Trump and his administration appeared to be in charge. They were bound and determined to repeal and replace Obamacare — the 2010 Affordable Care Act that requires people to buy health insurance, forbids health insurance companies to turn away clients with pre-existing illnesses and provides public subsidies to help working families meet healthcare expenses.

Under relentless prodding from President Trump, the Republican majority in the Senate last week brought a series of repeal bills to a vote and all of them failed. All of the proposed measures would have left millions of Americans without health insurance. A great many Republicans still don’t like requiring citizens to buy health insurance. That, however, is a point of principle. The harsh political reality is that Obamacare brought health insurance to millions of families. They love it and the Republicans dare not take it away.

President Trump has tweeted darkly about withholding the government subsidies that help working families with their health-care costs. He may or may not have the authority to do that, but it would be politically suicidal. The same voters who did not want Congress to repeal Obamacare will also not want the subsidies cancelled, which would accomplish the same goal by other means.

The upshot is that former president Barack Obama’s health insurance reforms are now irreversible, a fixed feature of U.S. law and policy. Mr. Trump dreams of sabotaging the system, but the public clearly wants him to make it work. He and his party imagined they had a better idea, but they had none. Like it or not, Mr. Trump and the United States are stuck with Obamacare.

So if Mr. Trump and the Republicans cannot repeal Obamacare, what can they do? Can they, for example, reform U.S. tax law? Can they write a new trade treaty with Canada and Mexico? Is it worth Canada’s while to negotiate with an administration that can’t get a longnurtured measure through Congress and can’t manage a complex legislative project?

The trade deal with Canada and Mexico is less complex than the health-insurance law and arouses less passion in the public. The administration may be able to handle it. Tax reform, however, is a lot like healthcare reform — endlessly complex and politically contentious. The health-insurance failure provides a warning that the big talk about tax reform may go nowhere.

The health-insurance failure has to erode President Trump’s authority over his party and his country. He has lost what, in a parliamentary democracy, we would call a vote of confidence, but the U.S. political system gives him no opportunity of dissolving Congress and calling fresh elections. He and his country are stuck with each other for another three and a half years though he is now, in a special sense, a lame-duck president.

Mid-term elections 16 months from now may show whether Mr. Trump still has weight to throw around beyond the walls of the White House. In the meantime, Canada has a trade treaty to negotiate, keeping in mind that Mr. Trump’s opinions about it may not matter much.

(This editorial appeared Aug. 1 in the Winnipeg Free Press and was distributed by The Canadian Press.)