Pipeline through B.C. or bust for Notley: Groom
The lack of meaningful progress on Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain pipeline is all about politics, being less than two years from provincial and federal elections, says a local political science instructor.
Premier Rachel Notley’s success or failure in getting Alberta oil to tidewater could be crucial in the next election.
“It is a make or break moment,” said Jim Groom, political science instructor at Medicine Hat College.
Many Albertans work or used to work in the oil industry or are closely related to someone with that connection. For them the pipeline is crucial.
“They (NDP government) don’t have a lot of natural supporters. They were able to win the last election, I think in part, because of frustration with the previous government,” said Groom.
To galvanize a broad base of support will require winning on this type of issue, says Groom.
Tensions around getting the $7.4-billion pipeline built have been escalating since the B.C. government revealed plans for more consultations about possible oil spill cleanups. It is also considering putting a limit on increased diluted bitumen shipments.
Notley retaliated this week with banning B.C. wine imports.
“She has to be seen as having effect leadership,” said Groom.
The federal government is playing all sides, he says.
There are about 17 Liberal MPs in the B.C. lower mainland, where all the protests are coming from, said Groom. There are only four Alberta Liberal MPs, and one is currently suspended.
The federal government is also treading a fine line in terms of authority.
“If they secede to this and say, ‘OK we will let you second guess everything we do on a national basis then it’s no longer a federation. It’s a provincially driven country,” said Groom. “Mr Trudeau has a delicate balance here.”
If the federal government says this pipeline will go ahead no matter what and sends in the troops, Alberta would love him, but he’s got those 17 seats in B.C. to consider, said Groom.
An emergency debate on the pipeline issue was requested by Conservative Party leader Andrew Scheer. He was told it did not meet the criteria.
During question period in the House of Commons, Kim Rudd, parliamentary secretary for minister of natural resources, said Canada will not let B.C. kill the pipeline.
Groom says it is likely it will all end up in court in order to get a definitive decision on whether B.C. has the right to block the pipeline expansion.
“The trouble with the courts is it could take forever,” said Groom.