Hat 2049: Older, drier and falling apart
Long-term Municipal Development Plan will have to tackle aging population, water shortages and failing infrastructure
By 2049, Hatters will have to meet the needs of more older residents, deal with massive changes to transportation and commercial land use, as well as replace aging infrastructure and likely wrestle with water shortages.
That’s according to city planners who are now writing an update to the city’s Municipal Development Plan.
The document is revised every five years or so to set down general land planning and policy that will affect other masterplans such as transportation to recreation.
The 2019 edition, planners say, should be guided by a move to encourage multi-family housing to accommodate an aging population, and a readiness to deal with climate change and new technology.
It also calls for increasing density and altering municipal servicing standards in suburbs to keep costs to taxpayers low.
“There are some large challenges but also some opportunities,” Robert Sissons, the city’s superintendent of planning policy, told the municipal planning commission on Wednesday.
That body heard an overview of the process to update the plan that will occur over the next year.
Initial discussions with development industry groups occurred early this year. A public engagement campaign will begin in April before the plan is drafted for council approval in early 2019.
Higher density growth, which makes fuller use of existing infrastructure rather than building new, was a plank in the 2012 edition of the plan. Ever since however, there has been general pushback from developers and residents when issues appear at council.
The new suggestion is to create higher-density corridors to lessen the cost of development to the existing taxbase.
Owners of larger, suburbanstyle lots may have to pay a premium or expect less in terms of sidewalks, roads, transit or other services.
MPC member Coun. Darren Hirsch said it’s important to grow the city sustainably, especially encouraging growth without increasing taxes, but higher density can be a hard argument to make.
“We hear all the time from people who say ‘I live in a big house and pay more than my share of taxes’,” said Hirsch. “They expect the same or better level of services. We’re going to need to be able to sit down and be able to explain how it will work.”
While larger residential properties pay higher taxes due to their assessed value, said Sissons, having fewer properties relative to more densely developed areas means total tax revenue is less.
Five years ago the city implemented a plan to spend nearly $1 billion over 30 years to repair and upgrade roads, pipes and bridges nearing a century in age.
By 2049 however, the focus would have to move outside the centre of the city to areas built since 1980.
That way, said Sissons “we will not be spending money to renew infrastructure at the same time as new costs for new infrastructure comes on.”
Sissons estimates an increase of 21,000 citizens could be accommodated within the existing city limits through more compact development.
Reaching targets in specific central areas could mean new traditional suburban housing could still move ahead in outer areas.
In 30 years, the city’s population could reach 86,600, and could include 31 per cent seniors, compared to 18 per cent today.
While Alberta is generally younger than most other locations in Canada, Medicine Hat specifically is closer to the national average, and like most other cities will have to deal with aging population and low natural population growth.
Aging population will mean a shift away from traditional single-family housing to more multi-family condos with some sort of assisted living services.
The preliminary view is to increase housing stock around several corridors in the city, similar to the build up that happened along 13th Avenue with condo development over the past two decades. Other themes in the process will be: — Dealing with climate change and water supply considering the possibility of droughts and the fact 1.5 million more people are projected to live in the southern Alberta’s river basins in 30 years time.
— Self-driving vehicles and online shopping could vastly change transportation and concepts of commercial nodes.
More information on the plan can be found on the website mymh.city and public feedback campaign is schedule to get underway in April.