What will win, what should win
AP writers predict winners at Sunday’s Oscars
LOS ANGELES Ahead of Sunday’s 90th Academy Awards, Associated Press film writers Lindsey Bahr and Jake Coyle share their predictions for a ceremony that — at least at the end — should be a nail biter. BEST PICTURE The Nominees: “Call Me by Your Name,” “Darkest Hour,” “Dunkirk,” “Get Out,” “Lady Bird,” “Phantom Thread,” “The Post,” “The Shape of Water,” “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” BAHR: Will Win: No controversy, timely messages, a dash of fantasy and a love of movies, “The Shape of Water” seems to be the safe, if a little boring, front runner.
Should Win: Aside from “Dunkirk,” which I saw three times in theatres, “Lady Bird” is the movie I want to watch over and over again. It is such an effortlessly perfect slice of life film that will be around far after this awards season noise comes to an end. The best picture category gets a bad reputation for all the times the award has gone to something that fades from memory a few years down the line. That wouldn’t be an issue with “Lady Bird.” COYLE: Will Win: There are five movies with a legitimate shot to win, which makes this year more difficult than usual to call. I’m going to say Jordan Peele’s cultural sensation “Get Out” wins because it has two crucial things going for it: the all-important SAG ensemble nomination and a good shot at a recently highly predictive screenplay award. That, and it did more to re-energize genre filmmaking than anything in a decade.
Should Win: I’d be thrilled if “Dunkirk,” “Get Out,” “Lady Bird” or “Phantom Thread” took home the top prize, but “Call Me By Your Name” stood apart for me. It’s a movie that feels like it has the windows open, and life just flows through it. ___ BEST ACTOR The Nominees: Timothee Chalamet (“Call Me by Your Name”), Daniel Day-Lewis (“Phantom Thread”), Daniel Kaluuya (“Get Out”), Gary Oldman (“Darkest Hour”), Denzel Washington (“Roman J. Israel, Esq.”) BAHR: Will Win: Gary Oldman has won most of the major awards so far and there’s no reason he wouldn’t continue the streak at the Oscars, much to the chagrin of the internet’s darling, Timothee Chalamet, who will definitely get another shot at this award down the line.
Should Win: There have been so many lame “Oscar-baity” biopics that it almost diminishes his achievement, but honestly, Gary Oldman’s full and complete transformation into Winston Churchill is something they should teach in acting (and makeup) classes forever. COYLE: Will Win: Oldman has this one in the bag.
Should Win: I wouldn’t begrudge Oldman, an actor’s actor for decades, his moment in the sun. But I’ll say Day-Lewis, who we all know is simply the best there is. Maybe a surprise Oscar would coax him into rethinking retirement. ___ BEST ACTRESS The Nominees: Sally Hawkins (“The Shape of Water”), Frances McDormand (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”), Margot Robbie (“I, Tonya”), Saoirse Ronan (“Lady Bird”), Meryl Streep (“The Post”) BAHR: Will Win: It’s funny how uninspired the acting categories can seem when the same people win every award. This is Frances McDormand’s year, plain and simple.
Should Win: This is an extremely tough category, not only because all of the performances are so good, but they’re good in different ways. Still, out of this batch, it was Margot Robbie who stretched herself beyond anything I might have assumed her capable of as the proud, defiant and unapologetic Tonya Harding. That shot of Robbie smearing on her stage blush while she tries to smile through the rising tears? It’s a classic. COYLE: Will Win: McDormand is a virtual lock.
Should Win: “Three Billboards” wouldn’t exist without McDormand, who towers over the film like only she can. And Streep gave one of her most subtle performances in “The Post.” But most deserving is Ronan, who’s perpetually playing a jumble of emotions, most of them contradictory, at once. ___ BEST DIRECTOR The Nominees: Christopher Nolan (“Dunkirk”), Jordan Peele (“Get Out”), Greta Gerwig (“Lady Bird”), Paul Thomas Anderson (“Phantom Thread”), Guillermo del Toro (“The Shape of Water”) BAHR: Will Win: Affable, undeniably talented, quick to drop an expletive and "”n love with love and movies,” Guillermo del Toro is the likely pick for this year’s best director. Also, “The Shape of Water” could only have been made by him.
Should Win: Although he’s been left on the cutting room floor this awards season, Christopher Nolan really should be getting more awards for his achievement with “Dunkirk.” Perhaps it came out too early, or didn’t have that extra performance component to keep its worthiness narrative alive? Maybe the film didn’t work as well in screener format as it did on the big screen. Whatever the reason, Nolan still made a masterpiece of suspense like we’ve never seen before. COYLE: Will Win: Del Toro seems to have this locked up. With a win, he’ll join his friends and Mexican countrymen Alejandro Inarritu and Alfonso Cuaron. The “Three Amigos” will have won four of the last five best director awards.
Should Win: I really have no idea. The filmmakers in this group are impossible to compare against each other; all of the movies are so singular to the director. Anderson’s impeccable comedy? Gerwig’s richness of lived-in detail? I don’t like choosing but Nolan’s feat in “Dunkirk” is a majestic creation of sight and sound.